美联储会议纪要：多数官员担心降息过快仍高度担忧通胀风险

美联储公布 1 月份 FOMC 货币政策会议纪要。

会议纪要显示，美联储官员认为政策利率可能已经达到本周期的峰值，但大多数官员注意到降息过快的风险，部分官员看到了通胀进展可能停滞的风险。

通胀风险预测略有上行。

一些美联储官员表示，放慢资产负债表规模可以使过渡顺利进行。

他们注意到隔夜逆回购的使用有所减少，许多官员表示，在下次会议上开始就资产负债表进行深入讨论是适当的。

一些政策制定者表示，资产负债表缩减步伐放慢可能会让资产负债表缩减持续更长时间。

美联储工作人员指出，华尔街的普遍共识是QT放缓将于7月开始，尽管具体开始日期存在很大不确定性。

争论的核心是，在不造成金融市场混乱或损害其更广泛政策目标的情况下，美联储可以在多大程度上缩减资产负债表。

到目前为止，自 2022 年 6 月开始 QT 以来，其资产负债表已缩减约 1.3 万亿美元。

当前的货币政策是限制性的，但仍然高度关注通胀风险

1月份会议纪要显示，在经济前景方面，与会者认为当前的货币政策立场是限制性的，将继续对经济活动和通胀施加下行压力。

因此，他们预计商品和劳动力市场的供需将继续平衡。

鉴于政策限制、供应状况持续改善和更有利的通胀数据，与会者认为实现就业和通胀目标的风险正在平衡。

不过，与会者指出，经济前景不明朗，通胀风险仍高度担忧。

市场参与者认为政策的限制性明显低于预期，这可能会给总需求带来不必要的推动，并阻碍通胀进程。

，这可能会导致总需求增加不必要的动力，并导致通货膨胀加剧

金融状况温和且宽松

会议纪要指出，金融状况温和缓解，但仍与去年夏天大致相同，并且比加息周期开始时紧缩得多。

两次会议期间，美国国债名义收益率的下降集中在收益率曲线的前端。

工作人员模型显示，短期收益率下降主要是由于政策利率预期路径较低，并且集中在预期实际利率上，预期通胀变化不大。

通胀衍生品的定价继续表明通胀的短期路径与今年晚些时候重返 2% 一致。

Fed worries about cutting interest rates too early or too much

The minutes show that market participants generally believe that recent inflation data and the dot plot released in December last year have increased the possibility that interest rates may be cut earlier than expected. The Open Markets Department's Primary Dealer Survey and Market Participant Survey showed little change in the pattern path of the federal funds rate from December, but indicated an increased likelihood of an early rate cut.

Institutional analyst Joseph Richter said the Fed is both worried that real interest rates remain too tight and is also worried about cutting interest rates too early or too much. For Treasuries, that could make it difficult to bounce back in the near term as markets consider how many rate cuts there might be, with eventual rate cuts pricing in what could mean a retest of recent yield highs.

Labor market remains tight

The minutes pointed out that data obtained at the January 30-31 meeting showed that U.S. real GDP growth was solid in the fourth quarter of 2023, but it slowed down compared with the strong growth in the third quarter. Labor market conditions remain tight but show signs of further easing. Consumer price inflation fell significantly during the year, although it remained above 2%. The relationship between labor supply and demand continues to gradually improve. Nonfarm payroll employment grew at a slower average monthly rate in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in December, the same as the third quarter average. However, the labor force participation rate fell, as did the employment-to-population ratio.

Borrowing costs fall, small business lending tightens

In domestic credit markets, borrowing costs for most businesses, households and municipalities fell slightly between the two meetings but remained elevated, Fed staff said. And interest rates on existing credit card accounts have barely changed. Interest rates for industrial and small business loans increased during the session. Credit continues to be widely available to businesses, households and municipalities. However, credit availability to small businesses continues to tighten. In the January Senior Loan Officer Opinions Survey (SLOOS), banks reported that standards and terms for industrial and commercial loans to businesses of all sizes tightened during the fourth quarter.

Financial and credit tightening is still expected to affect economic output this year and next

The economic forecast prepared by Federal Reserve staff for the January meeting is slightly stronger than the December forecast, as incoming data suggest that an upward revision to 2023 GDP growth lifts output levels throughout the forecast period. The lagged effects of early monetary policy actions, through continued tightening of financial and credit conditions, are still expected to push output growth in 2024 and 2025 below staff estimates of potential growth; by 2026, output is expected to be in line with potential growth Growth levels are synchronized. The forecast path for the unemployment rate was revised slightly downward, reflecting upward revisions to output levels. Both overall PCE and core PCE are expected to decline in 2024. By 2026, overall and core PCE are expected to approach 2%.

After the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell slightly in the short term. Spot gold hit $2020 per ounce. The tone of the minutes was seen as a bit hawkish or consistent with Powell's caution, with the Fed wanting to see more evidence of inflation progress before cutting rates.

"Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos commented on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting, saying that at last month's policy meeting, only two officials emphasized the risks of keeping interest rates at too high a level for too long, and more Fed officials said they were worried The risk is of cutting rates too early and of entrenched price pressures, rather than of keeping rates too high for too long.

Timiraos said officials are trying to balance the risk that they ease policy too slowly and the economy collapses under the weight of high interest rates. Another is to ease monetary policy too quickly, allowing inflation to become entrenched above the 2% target.

It is worth mentioning that since the last FOMC meeting, interest rate cut expectations have dropped significantly. Now an interest rate cut in March is no longer possible, and the total number of interest rate cuts in 2024 has also been reduced from 6 to 3 to 4 times.

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

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