CNBC 预计比特币 ETF 现货交易将立即进行

时间：2024-01-09|浏览：216

CNBC 预计现货 ETF 将于本周获得美国 SEC 批准，并在下一个工作日立即交易。

现货 ETF 即将由美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 做出决定，潜在的交易活动预计将于本周末开始。

预期的批准日期定于周三，对于许多渴望获得进入新兴市场绿灯的申请人来说至关重要。

据 CNBC 记者凯特·鲁尼 (Kate Rooney) 报道，可靠消息来源证实现货 ETF 本周有可能获得批准，最早在周四或周五引发潜在的交易狂潮。

这一发展如果实现，将预示着美国数字资产投资的变革时代，为众多申请人打开大门。

鲁尼敏锐地观察到 ETF 发行人之间不断升级的竞争，并预见到一场以现货 ETF 费用为中心的“价格战”即将到来。

随着大量申请进入监管渠道，贝莱德、富达和灰度等行业巨头正准备展开一场激烈的争夺投资者注意力的战斗，不仅在批准前的营销冲突中，而且在随后的定价环境中。

1 月 8 日，乐观价格跌至 2.90 美元的 14 天低点，较 12 月 27 日创下的 4.18 美元历史高点下跌 30%。

价格迅速下跌是由于 245 万美元的多头乐观 (OP) 期货合约在 24 小时内疯狂清算。

衍生品市场数据趋势为了解乐观期货交易的巨大变化可能如何影响未来几天的 OP 现货价格走势提供了重要见解。

为什么乐观主义的价格下跌？

随着以太坊第 2 层扩展协议记录了突破性的网络使用里程碑，乐观价格在 12 月 27 日达到了 4.18 美元的历史新高。

但到了岁末年初，山寨币市场涨势放缓，OP持有者开始获利了结。

值得注意的是，OP 价格在 1 月 8 日凌晨跌破 3 美元大关，引发衍生品市场数百万美元的损失。

最新的 OP 价格下跌使其较 12 月 27 日创下的 4.18 美元历史高点下跌了 30%。

乐观情绪最近的价格下跌趋势似乎让看涨的期货交易商没有意识到。

具有代表性的是，衍生品市场的广泛清算预示着周一的价格下跌。

Coinglass 的清算热图显示，OP 1 月 8 日的负面价格走势导致超过 280 万美元的期货合约蒸发。

当不利的价格走势迫使投机交易者因保证金不足而平仓时，就会发生清算事件。

Coinglass 的清算数据热图显示了损失主要方向的实时快照。

The green bars above show LONG traders suffered a disproportionately high incidence of daily losses compared to bears. Notably, by midday Eastern Time on Jan. 8, the Optimism bulls bore 86% of the heat, with $2.49 million OP LONG positions erased.

Optimism open interest has shrunk in 12 Days

The rising spate of Optimism open interest relative to spot prices in the last 12 days is another critical market indicator highlighting the growing bearish pressure on OP. Since Dec. 27, Optimism open interest (OI) has plummeted 10% faster than price, signaling a wave of voluntary exits as market momentum flips bearish.

As illustrated below, Optimism open interest has declined 40% from $347.9 million to $209 million between Dec. 27 and Jan. 8. Comparatively, OP spot prices have only declined 30% from $4.11 to a local bottom of $2.90.

Open interest quantifies the total capital invested in active derivatives contracts for a specific crypto asset. Strategic investors consider it a bearish signal when open interest for an asset shrinks. It indicates that more capital flows out of the markets, than investors bringing fresh funds.

The current market dynamics illustrate a 30% drop in OP price since rejecting from the market top on Dec. 27. But on a more concerning note, capital stock in the Optimism futures contracts have shrunk 10% faster.

The $2.4 million spike in OP LONG liquidations on Jan. 8 indicates forced selling, where traders are compelled to exit their long positions due to adverse price movements. Additionally, open interest declining faster than Optimism price implies that not only are traders voluntarily closing positions, but also an accelerated liquidation effect.

This bearish alignment suggests further price downside, potentially driven by margin calls and stop-loss triggers.

Based on the current market data trends, OP price looks set for a retest of the $2.50 territory. But to fully capitalize on the growing negative momentum, the bears must first break down the psychological support level at $3.

IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around price (IOMAP) data uses current OP holders’ historical entry prices to outline key support and resistance zones. It shows that the bears could face significant pushback in the $3 area.

As seen below, 3,260 addresses had acquired 6.1 million OP tokens at an average price of $3.03. If this significant cluster of investors makes short-covering purchases to defend their positions, OP price could rebound.

However, a detour below $3 could set off another wave of margin calls and stop-loss triggers. As predicted, this bearish scenario will likely open the doors to a $2.50 OP price retest.

On the upside, the bulls could regain control of the market of Optimism price reclaims $4. But in that case, the 7,800 addresses acquired 44.3 million OP at the average price of $3.50. If investors choose to book early profits, OP price will retrace again.

However, a positive spot ETF could spread bullish headwinds to the altcoin markets. If this scenario, OP bulls could gain sufficient momentum to breach that $3.50 resistance sell-wall.

Standard Chartered Bank anticipates a substantial influx of $50 to $100 billion into Bitcoin after approving spot ETFs, with industry experts speculating a decision by this week.

Standard Chartered Bank recently made a noteworthy prediction regarding Bitcoin, foreseeing a substantial influx of $50 to $100 billion in spot ETF inflows upon approval of the investment product, expected in 2024.

The international banking giant’s forecast is based on the anticipation surrounding more than a dozen spot ETF applications currently under consideration by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Industry experts are heightening their expectations for the imminent approval, with many speculating a decision by Wednesday. Standard Chartered’s projections extend beyond the immediate financial implications, suggesting a significant positive impact on following ETF approval.

The bank is not alone in contemplating the potential ramifications of a spot ETF approval. The broader digital asset industry is enthusiastic, and stakeholders are closely watching developments unfold.

According to Standard Chartered, it could not only witness substantial inflows but also achieve a remarkable price milestone of $200,000 by the end of 2025, surpassing its previous all-time high.

Earlier today, it reached $45,000, its highest since May 2022, when the market collapsed following Terraform Lab’s UST and LUNA crash. However, Bitcoin’s rally continues, as it reached $47,000 at the time of writing, recording a nearly 6% rise in 24 hours.

At the same time,the trading volume is also soaring across all major exchanges. According to daily trading volume has increased by over 120% today, and its market cap has increased by 6%. This shows a large volume of net investment inflow as traders demonstrate tremendous confidence in the leading token.

The rally is fueled by several reports of imminent spot ETF approval by the SEC, either this week or early next week. Just moments ago, CNBC reporters stated that ETF approval might come this Wednesday or Thursday.

Earlier today, banking giant Standard Chartered predicted that it might witness $50 to $100 billion in net flows if the SEC approves the spot ETF. There is strong market confidence in it, and further demand driven by fear of missing out from the community is driving BTC prices to the $50,000 mark.

Although STRK has not officially launched, the Starknet community showed overwhelming support for an upgrade aiming to introduce the native crypto as a gas token.

Starknet saw 99.8% of its participating delegates vote to implement Alpha version 0.13.0 on its mainnet, as no member of the Starknet Governance Committee opposed the proposal. The update aims to enable a dual token system allowing Ethereum Layer-2 (L2) network users to settle gas fees in either Ether (ETH) or STRK.

However, users will not immediately be able to pay for transactions using STRK since the native token remains unreleased.

The dual fee structure is only one-half of Starkent’s proposed update. Alpha v.13 will also slash gas fees by up to 50% and optimize network performance through technological improvements.

Starknet uses rollup solutions built on zero knowledge to scale Ethereum’s blockchain, offering cheaper fees and faster transactions. It currently costs less than $1 to send ETH and swap other ERC-20 tokens via STRK’s decentralized network.

To achieve this, the protocol bundles transactions on an off-chain layer before broadcasting the same on-chain actions on Ethereum’s main chain.

Launched in February 2022 by Israel-based blockchain firm StarkWare Industries, the Ethereum scaling network plans to distribute 1.8 billion STRK tokens in user rewards, with at least 50 million tokens designated for early adopters.

There is speculation regarding a general community airdrop for network participants andprices are down with traders anticipating further volatility this week. One project that’s trending lower is Solana. It is down 11.4% in the past seven days, dropping to $86.95. However, analysts are bullish on Bitcoin Minetrix as its presale surges past $7.8 million.

The volatility to rise as ETF approval deadline looms.

Concerns of mass volatility have taken their toll on Solana’s price, with it recently touching its lowest in three weeks.

Currently, Solana is trading at $90.8, down 4.9% today. It has also suffered a 29% decrease from its local top of $124.

Experts are concerned of even more downside potential, likely induced by immense volatility as the market reacts to upcoming Bitcoin ETF news.

Trader Kaz The Shadow recently posted a broader market overview, warning investors that “volatility will be very high” this week.

He concluded, “If you are not experienced in the market with these bounces, wicks and scam moves and don’t know how to manage your risk then you shouldn’t trade or just lower your size.”

This analysis implies that there will be an uptrend continuation once Solana retests $70.

Meanwhile, Pentoshi holds a similar outlook, predicting Solana will sell off to $70 before bouncing and continuing to climb.

The analyst explained in a recent tweet “not sure we get as low as I have here, but do expect at some point to be able to bid in the $70’s.”

But not all analysts are confident Solana will switch bullish after a short-term pullback.

The Dog explained a theory that the market is near its current cycle’s top.

鉴于比特币减半即将到来，如果准确的话，这将是前所未有的事件。

Crypto Dog 暗示最近的反弹是“受 BTC ETF 刺激”。

然而，他也认为“催化剂已经失效”，“现在我们需要在下一次反弹之前崩溃并冷静一段时间”。

该推文已获得 56.8 万浏览量，但得到了其他领先分析师的总体负面回应，Satoshi Flipper 回应“4.4 万美元是本轮牛市的顶部？”

最终，比特币 ETF 可能在几天后出现的加密货币前所未有的格局将给市场注入不确定性和疑虑。

这对 Solana 的价格产生了显着影响，但许多分析师预计，在未来几周内恢复之前，高波动性将持续下去。

然而，尽管市场环境动荡，一些加密货币仍然泰然处之。