我的比特币长期投资案例

我相信比特币在未来几年将会升值，因为我预计对比特币的需求将会增加，主要原因有两个：

1. 比特币成为全球储备货币；

   本国货币的无国界且中立的替代品。

2. 由于美国债务负担过高，导致美元贬值，无法偿还债务，而不会让通胀首先侵蚀其实际价值，投资者将配置比特币作为流动性非通胀资产。

你什么时候应该购买比特币？

从根本上来说，只有两种情况你应该购买比特币：

1. 如果您相信比特币会随着时间的推移而升值。

2. 如果您认为您可能希望在未来某个时候获得比特币的独特功能，并且存在您在需要时无法购买比特币的风险。

您不必确定上述任何一点，因为投资与概率、预期价值和不确定性有关。

您也不必投入所有资金或不投入任何资金。

对于大多数人来说，少量分配是明智的。

为了确定购买比特币是否适合您，您需要弄清楚您对比特币未来价格走势的预期以及您自己拥有比特币可能获得的效用。

全世界已经有数亿人认为比特币适合他们。

据推测，他们所有人都预计比特币会随着时间的推移而升值和/或相信他们在生命中的某个时刻需要利用比特币的独特功能。

有多少比特币持有者，就有多少种不同的观点。

为什么我相信比特币会升值

在未来几年中，我看到许多不同的触发因素可能会推高比特币的价格，包括：

• 2024 年 4 月，比特币产量减半。

• 随着华尔街大公司开始营销其产品，比特币 ETF 的流入量增加

• 财富不断向年轻一代转移，需求增加，他们更倾向于投资比特币。

然而，鉴于已经存在需求，这些触发因素只能解释需求的变化。

如果没有其他驱动因素，比特币的价值将是脆弱的，因为它只会建立在其具有价值的共同幻想上，而不是任何潜在的效用之上。

如果是这样的话，批评者就是对的，比特币就跟豆豆宝宝、NFT 或郁金香一样；

最终会破裂的金融泡沫。

I’m not a fan of trading financial bubbles, yet I am one of the hundreds of millions of owners of bitcoin. The reason is that I see a lot of fundamental value derived from the unique properties of bitcoin, and my long term investment thesis is fairly simple. I believe that bitcoin will become an important asset serving as a part of the infrastructure in the global financial system, and that this will drive substantial investor demand, eventually pushing bitcoin to a valuation of at least several hundred thousand dollars a unit.

I’m not certain of this and have not allocated all my wealth to bitcoin, but I’m convinced enough to take what many would describe as an irresponsibly large long position.

Collapsing trust internationally

The way I see it, we are moving towards a multipolar, fragmented international political settlement. The days with the U.S. as the clear hegemon are gone. In a world of more balanced, competing geopolitical interests, I don’t see how China would trust the dollar, how the U.S. would trust the yuan, how Russia would trust the Euro, and vice versa.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, its assets were frozen, and political interests are now working to confiscate the assets and use them against Russia. The whole world is noticing this, and nation states all over the world are now looking for seizure resistant assets like gold, which they hold within their own borders.

It is against this backdrop I believe that bitcoin will rise to the occasion. I believe that trade will continue globally, meaning that there will be a need for global payment rails.

But how will companies and individuals be able to pay when the receiving party of the payment operates from a different country or geopolitical cluster? What happens if an exporter only accepts yuan, but you only have dollars? By definition, you cannot simply exchange the dollars to yuan, because the entities that are willing to trust dollars, which at the end of the day are claims on U.S. banks and the U.S., would not be willing to trust yuan in a scenario where international trust breaks down.

Dollars do not get transformed into yuan when you exchange them. What happens instead is that the one with dollars tries to find someone who has yuan who can sell these in exchange for the dollars. When you have no one who trusts both China, and the U.S., i.e. are willing to, or able to, hold claims on both U.S. and Chinese entities, you also will have no one willing to exchange directly between dollars and yuan.

The solution in such a scenario, however, is simple. You need a neutral and mutually trusted asset in between. Gold could serve this role, and has done so historically, but it is inconvenient and expensive to send gold around physically. Oil could also be used, but is not divisible enough and is expensive to store and protect. Lastly, one could imagine small neutral countries like Switzerland acting as intermediaries, but they are likely to come under too much pressure from the larger centers of power. Bitcoin, however, is in many ways designed for the job.

Bitcoin as a trustless alternative

Bitcoin is a digital bearer asset with intrinsic value, meaning that the value rests within the bitcoin itself, not as a claim on any counterparty. The value may fluctuate and be uncertain, but it's intrinsic to the sats making up a bitcoin, nonetheless.

Bitcoin is not controlled by any states or centralized constellations of power. Bitcoin is also traded all over the world, against every currency, and can be stored and transferred digitally at almost no cost.

In other words, you could easily take your dollars, buy bitcoin, send the bitcoin to the receiver, who then could buy yuan. That way you would be able to cross a geographical trust border and have efficient and final settlement any time of the day, any day of the week, any week of the year.

This cannot be done with traditional national currencies or bank money, as they only exist as claims on a given counterparty (typically a bank). Before bitcoin every digital asset was a claim. Bitcoin is the first digital bearer asset without counterparty risk the world has seen.

A claim can circulate as money within a jurisdiction which can enforce the claim, and its associated trust circle. A claim will however not circulate as money or be accepted outside of its jurisdiction or trust circle, as there is no way you can ensure that it would be honored.

Not only that, but you also run the risk of the money being deprecated in your hands for political reasons should the issuer or its nation state not like what you are doing or classify you as a high-risk user.

I believe that bitcoin will become the neutral international currency, serving as the glue for global trade in a fragmented world. If so, it will succeed because it can serve the role of the least common denominator. It is unlikely to be the favorite of any nation state, or commercial entity for that matter, but it would be preferred over the currency of a competing nation state and over the alternative of no trade.

Replacing the dollar in international finance

For decades the U.S. dollar has served as the world's reserve currency, but I believe those days are numbered. I believe the main reason is the growing fear of the US leveraging its currency as a weapon, censoring those that they disagree with.

此外，美国巨额债务也不利于美元的地位。

美国的债务超过 34 万亿美元，赤字达 2 万亿美元，利息支付呈爆炸式增长，目前每年高达 1 万亿美元。

这是不可持续的。

以今天的购买力，债务不可能用美元来解决。

换句话说，要么美国拖欠债务，要么美国让通货膨胀吞噬未偿还债务的实际价值。

1971年，戴高乐派船去接美国欠法国的黄金时，尼克松放弃了金本位制。

2021年和2022年，美联储和政策制定者坚称通胀是暂时的，而通胀却飙升至2%左右目标的五倍左右。

他们知道，鉴于巨额债务积压，捍卫货币价值的后果，反而会让购买力随着时间的推移而恶化，侵蚀债务的实际价值。

结果，持有美元变得越来越没有吸引力，投资者正在寻找替代方案。

在众多替代方案中，比特币开始对越来越多的投资者越来越有吸引力。

我的计划是现在购买我的股份。

你知道，万一它流行起来。

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