[斯科特]“安静的奢华”如何巧妙地接管投资者的投资组合

奥地利维也纳 - 2022 年 11 月 25 日：Karin Teigl 穿着爱马仕黄色皮革迷你凯莉包、Baum & Pferdgarten 绿色皮夹克、Lumina 米色短款高领毛衣和复古格子绿黄色裤子。

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低调奢华是去年社交媒体上最火爆的时尚趋势之一，但与 TikTok 或 Instagram 上其他昙花一现的时尚不同，这一趋势已进入投资者投资组合并显示出实际回报。

那么什么是“安静的奢华”呢？

这一趋势围绕着低调、微妙的奢华展示而展开，HBO 连续剧《继承之战》等热门节目也为提升其受欢迎程度发挥了一定作用。

时尚界大声、浮华地展示财富的日子已经一去不复返了——现在一切都是微妙和极简主义的。

但这一趋势不仅在时尚界受到关注，就连投资者也开始注意到。

品牌提升

长期以来，奢侈品股票一直被一些人视为对抗通胀的有效手段。

这主要是因为该细分市场的高定价很少阻碍其富裕的客户群，而且其利润率比电视或手机等许多其他非必需消费品高得多。

从本质上讲，该细分市场的基本面几十年来并没有发生巨大变化，但随着奢侈品运动悄然兴起，投资者开始挑选那些在很大程度上符合这些条件的公司。

一些公司及其品牌概括了专家所说的低调奢华的精髓，东南亚最大的银行星展银行的数据显示，这些品牌在 2023 年的表现已经超越了“响亮”的同行。

爱马仕 (Hermes)

是从这一新浪潮中受益的一些顶级公司

、Prada 旗下 Miu Miu、

,

和

据星展银行称。

2023 年，安静奢华的表现将优于喧闹奢华。

星展银行

星展银行首席投资官侯伟福表示：“低调的奢侈品运动突显了消费者对奢侈品消费微妙的偏好，专注于低调优雅和永恒品质的公司将与消费者产生共鸣，并从这一趋势中受益。”

"Hence, in 2023, quiet luxury companies notably outperformed their loud peers by 23% points. We expect this ongoing shift in the industry's dynamics will help sustain this bifurcation in performance."

According to DBS, a company fall under its categorization of "quiet luxury" if it's understated and focused on high quality, while maintaining exclusivity and scarcity.

Some of the bank's top picks include Hermes, Moncler, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Richemont, Swatch, Brunello Cucinelli and Ermenegildo Zegna.

Go long on quiet luxury

Unlike viral trends that come and go, investors are looking at these companies with a much longer term view.

"There's this element of: 'I'm tired of all the big logo stuff,'" said MarkusHansen, portfolio manager at Vontobel Quality Growth Boutique, noting that consumers and investors now want a higher quality product.

"It comes back to the heritage of these houses, which are the ones that are the most successful ... and what we invest in are the ones that take a very long term view," he told CNBC.

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Squawk Box Asia

In Asia-Pacific, the demand narrative for luxury goods could be shifting due to China's uneven post-pandemic recovery and lackluster domestic demand.

Though Chinese consumers' appetite for luxury goods may not have completely dried up, luxury brands are broadening their horizons to cater to other big markets in Asia.

In Asia, mature markets like South Korea and Japan are seeing growing demand for luxury goods, Hansen said.

He added: "India is the last big market, not just the population, but in terms of the growing wealth of the population."

A recent Goldman Sachs report predicted around 100 million people in India will become "affluent" by 2027 — defined by the U.S. investment bank as those earning an annual income exceeding $10,000. Currently, 60 million people in the world's fifth-largest economy earn more than $10,000, the report said.

Loud luxury not in vogue

Quiet luxury stocks were bumped up in portfolios last year, pushing down brands that were considered too "loud."

As a result, Kering-owned Gucci & Burberry were pushed lower in global rankings of luxury stocks, Bank of America Securities research showed.

"We believe that throughout the year brands should focus back on fashion content and newness in order to re-engage customers and drive traffic," said BofA research analyst Ashley Wallace, noting that companies that are geared toward quiet luxury are better positioned this year.

BofA said it preferred companies like LVMH and Hermes over Gucci-owner Kering and Burberry.

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