[丽莎]总统选举将萨尔瓦多的比特币未来置于十字路口

2 月 4 日（周日），萨尔瓦多总统选举将决定 Nayib Bukele 及其革命性的比特币实验是否会继续留在该国的未来。

纳伊布·布克莱2019年就任萨尔瓦多总统以来，得到了相当广泛的支持。他是自1984年以来第一位独立于美国两大政党获胜的人。然而，让他的政府成为全世界讨论的话题的是他对比特币的支持。布克莱于 2021 年 9 月创造了世界历史，他将比特币提升为法定货币，萨尔瓦多对比特币的激进实验从那时起就引起了全世界的兴趣。

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当然，这种兴趣很大一部分是负面的，尤其是来自全球金融和媒体机构的兴趣。比特币法在比特币从历史高点下跌前几周生效，这引发了不小的猜测，认为政府将因此损失巨额资金。更紧迫的是，国际货币基金组织等金融机构也一再敦促萨尔瓦多放弃其项目，这增加了该国失去贷款的可能性。然而，截至 2024 年，不仅政府对比特币库存的投资已实现盈利，而且主要金融机构也勉强接受了萨尔瓦多经济的强劲势头。从这个角度来看，这个国家的批评者已经被证明是错误的，但还有一个更直接的考验即将到来：布克莱的连任问题。

In an interview on January 31, Bukele’s running mate Felix Ulloa went to great lengths to stress that a re-election will mean a firm re-commitment to Bitcoin. Although Ulloa revealed that the IMF has quietly been repeating its requests to de-list bitcoin in El Salvador, he was insistent that these pleas are falling on deaf ears. A particular source of strength, he claimed to Reuters, was the takeoff of the ETF in the United States. A major victory like this means for him that Bitcoin “enjoys the greatest credibility in the entire world.” Not only did Ulloa claim that the existing laws in support of Bitcoin “will be maintained”, but he also added that the proposed “Bitcoin City'' infrastructure project continues to enjoy the government’s full support.

As far as the polls are concerned, a wide variety of international press agencies all agree that Bukele’s victory is practically guaranteed. The centerpiece of his popularity, it seems, actually has nothing to do with Bitcoin, as large numbers of citizens remain unconvinced. Instead, it seems his sweeping crackdowns on gang activity are the main reason, causing El Salvador’s murder rate to plummet from a shocking 105 murders per 100k residents in 2015 to 7.8 per 100k, the lowest in the region. In other words, his voters love him extensively, but as of yet they remain ambivalent on the Bitcoin initiative. Fickle support like this could indeed be dangerous, as future economic difficulties could turn this indifference into outright rejection. However, as far as all polling suggests, Bukele will have another term to convince his people.

Luckily, there are extensive plans in place to attempt to deepen these connections in multiple spheres of life. The usage of an international currency like bitcoin has attracted the flow of international spending, with tourism to the nation spiking in recent years. In addition to these more casual inflows of cash, the government has also encouraged more permanent immigration by allowing foreign nationals to directly purchase citizenship with bitcoin investment. These attempts to raise foreign dollars can definitely impact the nation’s citizens, but there are also efforts underway to directly create jobs in this burgeoning industry.

Since October, El Salvador has partnered with several firms to create mining infrastructure powered by geothermal energy. Bitcoin mining is a growing market worldwide, and the use of green energy easily sidesteps the most common refrain against it. These goals of creating domestic jobs and attracting foreign investment both fall under the umbrella of the aforementioned “Bitcoin City” project, a plan with the long-term goal of fostering all the multifarious jobs in software development and blockchain engineering associated with the digital asset space.

If El Salvador’s voters do decide to re-elect Bukele on February 4, he’ll have his work cut out for him to ensure that Bitcoin is an enduring presence. As of yet, many of his citizens are either earning extra revenue from international travelers interested in Bitcoin, or involved in building the new pools to mine it. Although the economy is growing, this has not been sufficient to win his people over to the full possibilities of a radical new economic future. Nevertheless, he has won their love anyway, as his government has continually enjoyed fierce public support. In other words, re-election is very likely, and the experiment will continue for the five years of his second term. The major challenge of these five years, however, will be to ensure that Bitcoin will become a fact of life for his people. Still, as daunting of a task as this may seem, he has already been working on normalizing Bitcoin in a wide variety of ways.

Just as one example of this, last year the country partnered with one of its largest distributors, enabling huge numbers of businesses to begin accepting bitcoin for the most mundane transactions. Furthermore, these normalization efforts have extended beyond El Salvador’s borders. El Salvador needs the support of its citizens, but it also wishes to encourage broader support from other nations. The Central African Republic (CAR) was directly inspired by El Salvador when it briefly became the second nation to adopt bitcoin as a legal currency. However, this effort was simply impossible to sustain in a country where around 90% of citizens do not have internet access, and it was shuttered in 2023. CAR was not the only country to be influenced by Bukele’s government, as he actually sent a team of “Bitcoin Ambassadors” to Argentina upon the election of its newest President last November. Outreach efforts like this will go a long way to ensure that El Salvador is the first country to accept bitcoin as legal tender, but won’t be the last.

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其中一些举措突显了萨尔瓦多的比特币项目与美国的 ETF 之战有着截然不同的目标，尽管副总统乌略亚等萨尔瓦多人自然对其胜利感到振奋。 ETF 是一种金融工具，它让普通美国人有一些额外的机会从比特币的成功中间接获利，而比特币则有一个激进的愿景，让世界上的任何人都能掌控自己的经济财富。纳伊布·布克莱 (Nayib Bukele) 对促进比特币成为日常生活的一部分表现出了真正的兴趣，他鼓励经济发展的各种方式以及他在国际推广方面的尝试就表明了这一点。我们的社区需要像那些参与 ETF 之战的斗士，但重要的是要记住，比特币的意义不仅仅是一种赚取法定货币的方式。如果布克莱有机会真正将比特币融入萨尔瓦多社会，它将向世界展示比特币可以为我们所有人带来什么样的成功。

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