比特币将升至 100,000 美元？

时间：2024-02-17|浏览：232

反弹至 50,000 美元或更高，我们会在接下来的几个月内看到 100,000 美元吗？

最终的问题是比特币的价格将如何走势？

时期。

一周内资金流入净额超过 20 亿美元。

我们对比特币能期待什么？

比特币的价格一直在加速上涨。在...之前

价格从 25,000 美元上涨至 49,000 美元。

从那时起，情绪迅速转向极度负面情绪，表明由于#GBTC 流出，市场不得不跌至 3 万美元。

然而，市场从 39,000 美元逆转，表明人们对比特币现货 ETF 产生了浓厚的兴趣，最终达到 53,000 美元的峰值并持续流入。这对我们意味着什么？

1️⃣ -

＃情绪

总是一个错误的指标。

这仍然有效。

以下是近期情绪的一些例子：

- 在 ETF 获得批准之前，有传言称比特币可能会达到新的 ATH，而且越来越强。最终，潜在的批准本身就表明了市场的潜在实力，导致价格从 25,000 美元上涨至 49,000 美元。

然而，市场的强势已经体现在实际情况中。

＃价格

action, but sentiment always overshoots as emotions are reflected into scenarios, hence why emotions have a bad impact on trading/investing. - The second example was the actual correction from $49K to $39K resulting into a negative sentiment. Why?Outflow on GBTC has been taking place and as a result, the expectations where that this outflow was going to have a continuous negative impact on the markets resulting into a wider correction. Again an example of sentiment overexceeding the #reality.- The third example is the current momentum. The markets are seeing a tremendous amount of interest into the markets based on the inflow in the Spot ETFs. However; does that mean that the interest is going to remain continuous. What if the interest is slowing down? Or the outflow from Grayscale increases? Or other macro-economic impacts are going to have an impact? Emotions always exceed reality and sentiment overshoots the price action by a mile, that's why people start to lose money. Markets are pricing in events at all times, whether you like it or not. 2️⃣ - What should be your gameplan if you want to invest into #Bitcoin? A relatively strict and simple gameplan. You should divide two things when it comes to gameplans.- Trading or swingtrading purposes. Ultimately, a trade is defined on the horizon that you're looking to hold the asset (including the timeframes you're using for your analysis). If your horizon is relatively short, then it might not be +EV to buy an asset that appreciated 35% in 10 days. Same goes for swingtrading purposes.Why is that?Well, let's assume that the risks of a correction have increased. If you think that a correction to $45K has a chance of 30-35% and a potential upwards push to $60K has 60% chance, it might be -EV to actually take the trade. If markets correct from $55K to $46K and are seeing a 20% correction, those odds of an upwards move and downwards continuous correction are flipping more in favour of a long. That's the methodology you should be using when it comes to trading.- Investing purposes. This basically comes down to your risk appetite, and again, horizon. If you want to start investing, I would suggest to wait for a standard 20-40% correction on Bitcoin to happen. You'll tackle a few important points: buying in corrections (the opposite of the sentiment at that point) and being able to control those emotions.However, if your horizon is 2-3 years from now and you suspect to see Bitcoin at $150K+ in that window, then there's no big issue of starting to scale in at these prices. Once again, there's more confirmation to enter the markets in a correction than in an upwards push.Share with your friends

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