比特币飙升至历史新高。那么为什么矿工们不也进行爆炸呢？

• 投资者是“做多比特币和做空矿工”，因为将资金投入比特币现货 ETF 比承担在即将到来的比特币减半之前持有矿商可能产生的风险更安全。

• 矿业公司需要证明他们能够产生强劲的回报，以说服投资者重新投资他们的股票。

• 历史模式表明，矿业股在减半后可能会上涨，而交易费用、并购和其他策略可能会帮助它们保持盈利。

加密货币社区对比特币 {{BTC}} 周二创下历史新高议论纷纷。

但在比特币生态系统中发挥重要作用的矿商股价未能复制令人眼花缭乱的涨势，因为投资者担心所谓的减半即将带来的风险，而是将资金投入现货比特币 ETF。

阅读更多：什么是比特币减半？

从历史上看，比特币矿工被视为比特币价格的代理，但当比特币上涨时，他们的回报会更高。

由于限制而无法从交易所购买比特币的世界各地投资者可以购买矿业股票以获得投资机会。

这有助于推动 2021 年上一个牛市周期的大幅反弹。

毫不奇怪，这些股票在随后的熊市中大幅下跌，一些知名矿商也申请破产。

随着该行业走出残酷的加密货币冬天，矿工们解决了他们的问题，人们希望他们的股价能够在比特币上涨的情况下回升。

但还发生了其他事情：比特币的价格今年上涨了约 54%，刚刚触及 69,000 美元以上的历史新高，而追踪公开交易矿工表现的基金 Valkyrie 比特币矿工 ETF (WGMI) 则下跌了约 21% 。

令人着迷的是，#BTC 距离 ATH 仅 1%，而 #bitcoin 矿业股票在上一个周期中没有接近 ATH。自 2021 年 11 月 8 日以来的疯狂上涨 pic.twitter.com/hk9xtjqAwR

— 沃尔夫·赵 (@WolfieZhao) 2024 年 3 月 5 日

比特币和矿业股之间的这种脱节给投资者带来了沉重的提醒：这次牛市是不同的。

这一次，比特币上涨的主要推动力是美国证券交易委员会今年批准了现货比特币交易所交易基金

就像矿商股票一样，这些 ETF 在证券交易所进行交易——几乎任何美国经纪账户都可以访问。

这使得投资者能够更直接地接触数字资产，而无需通过加密货币交易所的单独账户购买它们。

这也确保了他们可以持有比特币，而不必让他们的投资组合面临矿业股票的波动性及其公司风险。

"With the approval of Bitcoin ETF products, investors can now access direct exposure to bitcoin price. Prior to the approval of the ETF, public mining stocks were one of the only traditional vehicles through which investors could get exposure to bitcoin price appreciation," Galaxy's mining analysts, led by Brandon Bailey, wrote in a research note.

It's possible that retail investors may still buy into mining stocks, but for institutional players – the ones that move the needle in most cases – short-selling mining stocks became the preferred trade. "Institutions are seemingly more likely in the short run to go long the Bitcoin ETFs and short mining stocks, which we've seen start to play out since the beginning of 2024," the report added.

Unless the miners can show strong positive cash flow generation, investors will likely shy away from funding some miners, posing "challenges in the equity market for lower margin, higher cost operators with weaker track records for return on capital," the analysts said.

Bitcoin halving uncertainty

Another roadblock for mining stocks, this time around, is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April, which will ramp up the competition for the miners. The halving is part of the Bitcoin network's code to reduce inflationary pressure on the cryptocurrency. Miners are rewarded bitcoin for running the network, but every four years, a halving cuts that reward in half.

Read CoinDesk's halving coverage here.

Bitcoin soared after the last halving in May 2020, and miners joined in. At the time, there weren't many large-scale miners. This time around, though, the market is crowded with many large-scale miners, who will compete for bitcoin rewards that will be cut to 3.125 from 6.25 bitcoin. On top of that, the difficulty of mining a block has also risen to an all-time high, which will make things even tougher post-halving.

This poses a significant uncertainty for investors in mining stocks. "Uncertainty prevails regarding which miners will weather the storm and survive the impending revenue halving," George Kikvadze, executive vice chairman of Bitfury Group, wrote in a blog post.

"Consequently, investors seek tangible reassurances amidst this uncertainty and are diverting capital to the perceived safety of Bitcoin ETFs," he added.

'Temporary setback'

So, is there any silver lining for the miners?

Galaxy's analysts predict that there are few positive trends that can help the miners. One of them is transaction fees, which could be the "biggest wildcard" for mining revenue in 2024. As fees generated by Ordinals – NFT-like assets recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain – have recently helped miners' revenue, and that could help them stay afloat post-halving.

“虽然我们可能预计算力会在减半后下降（因为实力较弱的矿工关闭其运营），但同期费用的大幅上涨可能会将收入提高到足够高的水平，从而使效率较低的矿工能够继续以利润进行挖矿，否则这些矿工将无利可图，”分析师写道。

其他一些也可以帮助矿工的选择包括对冲电力成本以及使用开采的比特币来对冲价格波动。

分析师还预测，今年并购可能会增加，因为规模较小、效率较低的矿商可能需要被规模较大的矿商收购才能在竞争中生存。

阅读更多：比特币减半将释放矿工的达尔文主义

与此同时，Bitfury 的 Kikvadze 表示，历史先例表明，尽管市场存在担忧，但矿商将在减半后“蓬勃发展”。

他研究了 2020 年 5 月减半期间公开交易的矿商股票的表现，结果显示“矿商在减半前的几个月表现不佳或与比特币持平，但在随后的‘比特币夏季’牛市中表现优于比特币。 ”

到目前为止，在减半事件发生之前，矿商的表现落后于比特币的价格。

如果历史属实，那么矿业股可能有机会在减半事件后受到追捧，而比特币价格上涨超过历史高点也可能有所帮助。

“目前公开交易的比特币矿商的平静是暂时的挫折，这是在减半事件中预计到的。随着尘埃落定，强大的矿商将大放异彩，投资者将涌向该行业，”基克瓦泽写道。

阅读更多：下一次比特币减半会是另一个炒作周期吗？

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