Golden Ten Data Global Financial Breakfast | March 8, 2024

Today's picks

Powell: Not too far away from having confidence in rate cuts

Powell: Commercial real estate-induced (small and medium-sized) bank failures are expected

The European Central Bank keeps its three major interest rates unchanged as scheduled

Hamas says Gaza ceasefire talks to resume next week

Israel may launch "war" against Hezbollah

Xi Jinping: Comprehensively enhance strategic capabilities in emerging fields

Central Bank of China: Increased gold reserves for 16th consecutive month

General Administration of Customs: The scale of import and export of goods trade hit a record high for the same period in history

Market inventory

On Thursday, affected by Powell's dovish remarks, the U.S. dollar index weakened, falling to a more than six-week low, and finally closed down 0.54% at 102.81. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.0885%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 4.5034%.

Due to Powell's remarks leading to an increase in interest rate cut bets, continued central bank purchases, and heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical escalation, spot gold hit new highs repeatedly and achieved 7 consecutive positives. It once exceeded US$2,164 per ounce during the session, and finally closed up 0.55%. , at $2,160.02 per ounce; spot silver finally closed up 0.65% at $24.33 per ounce.

Due to the Houthi armed attack on merchant ships and the expectations of interest rate cuts by many central banks, WTI crude oil fluctuated upwards and finally closed up 0.43% at US$79.56/barrel; Brent crude oil fluctuated downwards in the Asian and European markets and recovered its losses in the US market. , the price was almost flat, and finally closed down 0.04% at $83.88 per barrel.

All three major U.S. stock indexes rose. The Dow closed up 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1%, hitting a new closing high, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 4.4%, rising for six consecutive trading days, while Apple (AAPL.O) fell slightly, falling for seven consecutive trading days. The gap in market value between the two narrowed to $300 billion. New York Community Bank (NYCB.N) rose 5.7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.85%, Bilibili (BILI.O) fell nearly 2%, JD.com (JD.O) fell more than 3%, and Tencent Music (TME.N) rose more than 7%.

Major European stock indexes closed higher across the board, with Germany's DAX30 index closing up 0.71%; Britain's FTSE 100 index closing up 0.17%; and the European Stoxx 50 index closing up 1.19%.

The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks opened close to flat, rising slightly and then fluctuating downward. In the afternoon, the Hang Seng Index once fell by nearly 2%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by more than 2.5%. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index closed down 1.27%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.56%; the Hang Seng Index's market turnover was reported at HK$98.009 billion. On the market, affected by the news, WuXi was in a downturn throughout the day, with WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) and WuXi AppTec (02359.HK) closing down nearly 20%; the precious metal sector continued to be strong, with Zijin Mining (02899.HK) closing up. Over 4%; among popular technology stocks, JD.com (09618.HK) closed up 6%, and Weibo (09898.HK) rose 1.44%.

The three major A-share indexes fluctuated downward. As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.33%. On the market, the nonferrous metal sector surged, with electrical alloys, Sichuan Gold and other stocks hitting their daily limit; the tourism sector strengthened in the afternoon, with Dalian Shengya and Changbaishan hitting their daily limit; in addition, transportation equipment, breeding, steel and other sectors were among the top gainers; AI mobile phones, Sora Concepts such as medicine, media and entertainment, and semiconductor sectors were among the top decliners. The total transaction volume of the two cities is approximately 980 billion yuan.

Bitcoin once returned to the US$68,000 mark, and finally closed up 1.98%, at US$67,429 per coin; Ethereum hit US$3,900 per coin, a new high since December 2021, rising 2.18% during the day, and finally closed up 1.6 %, reported at US$3883.07 per piece.

international news

1. Powell: Fully aware of the risks of cutting interest rates too late, he is not far away from having confidence in cutting interest rates; he can see reasons to shorten the duration of the bonds he holds; he is still a long way from considering launching a central bank digital currency; it is expected that There are (small and medium) bank failures caused by commercial real estate.

2. Fed-Bowman reiterated that "now is not the time" to cut interest rates, and is still willing to raise interest rates if inflation reverses; Mester: It may be appropriate to cut interest rates later this year, and he is not very worried that cutting interest rates will aggravate inflation. Consider raising long-term interest rate forecasts.

3. The European Central Bank kept its three major interest rates unchanged as scheduled and lowered its 2024 GDP growth and CPI expectations; President Lagarde said that interest rate cuts were not discussed at this meeting and a new monetary policy framework may be released next week.

4. The U.S. trade account recorded -$67.4 billion in January, the largest deficit since April 2023; the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the U.S. in February hit a new high since March 2023; U.S. household net worth increased by 48,000 in Q4 last year billion, a month-on-month increase of 3.2%.

5. The U.S. Ambassador to Israel: The Gaza negotiations have not yet "broken down" and the differences are "narrowing."

6. Hamas said negotiations on the Gaza ceasefire agreement will resume next week.

7. Israel issued a threat to require Hezbollah’s armed forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon. If no agreement on withdrawal is reached before March 15, it will launch a “war” against Hezbollah.

8. Sweden officially joined NATO, ending more than 200 years of neutrality policy.

9. The wage increase demanded by Japanese labor unions this year is the highest in 30 years, at 5.85%.

10. British media: Biden plans to significantly increase taxes on the wealthy, with the corporate tax rate increasing from 15% to 21%.

domestic news

1. When attending the plenary meeting of the People's Liberation Army and Armed Police Force delegation, Xi Jinping emphasized the need to strengthen mission responsibilities, deepen reform and innovation, and comprehensively enhance strategic capabilities in emerging fields.

2. Wang Yi: China has always maintained the stability and continuity of its policy toward the United States, and urges the United States to view China's development objectively and rationally, and to implement its commitments consistent with words and deeds.

3. The General Office of the State Council issued opinions on further optimizing payment services and improving payment convenience.

4. Central Bank: China’s gold reserves were 72.58 million ounces at the end of February and 72.19 million ounces at the end of January, marking the 16th consecutive month of increasing gold reserves.

5. State Administration of Foreign Exchange: As of the end of February, my country’s foreign exchange reserves were US$3.2258 billion.

6. We learned from the General Administration of Customs that in the first two months of this year, the scale of my country’s import and export of goods trade hit a record high for the same period in history, and foreign trade achieved a good start. In the first two months of this year, my country's total import and export value of goods trade was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; of which, exports were 3.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3%; imports were 2.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%.

7. The bank issued a document clarifying that buying a third house for sale/rent in Guangzhou can be treated as the first house.

8. As of the end of 2023, the number of registered employees in Shenzhen was 12.5595 million, reaching a record high, of which 9.955 million were employed without Shenzhen household registration.

9. China has implemented a pilot visa-free policy for six countries including Switzerland, Ireland, Hungary, Austria, Belgium, and Luxembourg.

10. Dongfeng Company: FAW and Dongfeng are actively following up on the investment in the joint venture between Huawei and Changan, and preliminary results are expected in June.

11. Bilibili’s net income in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 6.3 billion yuan, compared with market expectations of 6.32 billion yuan.

Risk Warning

10:00, US President Biden delivers a State of the Union address to Congress. He may talk about inflation, immigration and other issues important to voters;

At 18:00, the final annual GDP rate of the Eurozone in the fourth quarter was announced, with market expectations of 0.10% and the previous value of 0.10%;

At the same time, the euro zone’s seasonally adjusted quarterly employment rate for the fourth quarter was announced. The market expected it to be 0.30%, compared with the previous value of 0.30%;

20:00, FOMC permanent voting committee member and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech. He has previously stated that he expects to lower interest rates later this year and does not believe there is a sense of urgency to lower interest rates. Raising interest rates is not part of the basic situation;

21:30, the U.S. unemployment rate in February was announced, the market expected it to be 3.70%, the previous value was 3.70%;

At the same time, the market expected an increase of 200,000 non-agricultural employment in the United States in February after seasonally adjusting, compared with the previous value of 353,000.

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

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