时间：2024-03-13|浏览：214
According to CoinDesk, Singapore-based digital assets trading firm QCP Capital has warned of a potential price correction for Ether (ETH) despite its recent surge past $4,000. The firm cites a shift in market sentiment and a low probability of a spot ether ETF approval in the near future as reasons for its caution. However, QCP Capital remains optimistic about Ether's long-term potential, considering the possibility of price reflexivity with current market dynamics and network upgrades.
QCP Capital has observed negative risk reversals, which measure the difference in implied volatility between call and put options. This is likely due to the low probability of a spot ether ETF being approved in the near future. Historically, network upgrades like Bitcoin's Taproot and the Ethereum merge have had minimal impact on pricing under bearish and sideways market conditions. However, with current market dynamics, there could be price reflexivity on Ethereum and its Layer 2s, potentially influenced by the already priced-in Dencun upgrade or a positive knee-jerk reaction, along with possible capital inflows into Layer 2 ecosystems.
A Polymarket prediction market contract gives a 31% chance of an ether ETF being approved by May 31. CoinDesk recently reported that market data shows a rise in demand for ether put options as traders prepare for short-term weakness. This is reflected in the negative skew of one-month and 60-day call-put ratios, while longer-term sentiment remains positive. QCP Capital also expressed concern about the amount of leverage currently in the market, but believes traders will quickly buy back any dips. Excessive leverage in the market is said to have caused the May 2021 crash, where prices fell by 30% over the course of 24 hours, and a 10% correction in bitcoin's price in January. Ether has outperformed the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which tracks the world's largest and most liquid cryptocurrencies, gaining 54% in the last month versus the CD20's 50% rise.
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