The Illusion of Guaranteed Profit

Will you definitely make money by collecting coins? Will the long term definitely outperform the short term?

Let’s take pie as an example:

The lowest point in 22 years was 15,000, and now it is 70,000, which seems to be an increase of 350%. But why don’t you start stocking up on November 18, 2021? The price of the pie that day was 68,000. Now, today, March 18, 2024, the income is -6%;

On another date, you bought a 46,666 pie on April 4, 2022. How could you endure the retracement loss of 65% on October 11, 2022, leaving only 16,250?

To stretch it a bit further, you are a newbie who entered the market early. In 2017, when I was most FOMO, I heard that someone entered the market and bought a 17,000 pie. Now I have 64,000, a 260% profit, but you got 6 Year-on-year, the average annualized rate is only about 17%. Is this something to be proud of in the currency circle?

Let’s talk about entering the market, but as a currency hoarder, how can you guarantee that you can sell it at 70,000, and now it is 64,000? If you entered the market with 15,000, and now the profit is only 300%, should you sell it? If you sell it at 70,000 or 80,000, and the future pie will be 100,000 or 150,000, will you regret it?

It is not difficult to find that our thinking that trading cannot outperform the market and that dead stocking is the most effective is often just an illusion. You are imagining that you will enter at the lowest point, and you are imagining that you will exit at the highest point, and you hope that the highest point will never be reached again.

热点： THE