市场即将迎来大利好？美联储关注的焦点可能不再是通胀！

2022年，随着通货膨胀飙升，美联储提高利率以防止工资螺旋式上升。

现在，随着失业率上升，美联储发出了一个信号，即愿意降低利率以阻止裁员的恶性循环，即使这意味着通胀会暂时上升。

美联储主席鲍威尔在上周三新闻发布会的开场白中宣布，失业率的意外上升可能促使美联储在当前经济增长的情况下首次降息。

随后，他在回答记者提问时多次重复了这一信息。

他在为期两天的政策会议后表示，虽然美联储在降息之前要等待确保通胀战争取得胜利，但“就业市场意外疲软可能也需要政策回应。”

鲍威尔表示，他目前没有看到就业市场出现任何裂缝，但一些经济学家并不那么乐观。

他们指出，美国多州失业率大幅上升，临时工持续减少、工作时间缩短。

无论如何，鲍威尔和他的同事们都清楚，他们所认为的稳定的劳动力市场可能很快就会变质。

从历史上看，失业率一旦开始攀升，就会因为企业纷纷宣布裁员而大幅上升。

如果劳动力市场过度疲软，鲍威尔可能会降低利率。

前美联储经济学家温迪·埃德尔伯格表示，美联储“不希望失业率上升”。

她表示，鲍威尔可能会为宽松政策敞开大门，因为通胀“非常接近”美联储2%的目标。

她补充说，美联储不必通过打击劳动力市场来控制物价上涨，而是可以选择在未来几年忍受通胀略高的情况。

鲍威尔表示：“我们坚信，随着时间的推移，通胀率将降至2%。”

这对于寻求连任的拜登来说是个好消息。

选民已经对他对经济的处理感到悲观。

11 月大选前失业率急剧上升只会加剧这种看法。

这对于投资者来说也是个好消息。

随着通胀从两年前的极高水平回落，美联储现在可以为经济乃至金融市场提供更多支持。

全球资产管理公司 Point72 的经济学家兼策略师索菲亚·德罗索斯 (Sophia Drossos) 周五表示：

“各国央行正在采取一些措施来帮助实现其任务中的经济增长，特别是在美国，这对风险资产非常有利。”

劳动力市场似乎正在放缓

Federal Reserve officials' latest economic forecasts show they expect unemployment to rise this year, but not by much. Policymakers expect the unemployment rate to rise to an average of 4% by the final quarter of 2024, from a two-year high of 3.9% in February.

Powell said the Fed recognized the risk that a large number of layoffs could lead to a "fairly rapid rise" in unemployment as companies curb hiring. But he added that he doesn't think that will happen, especially since jobless claims are "very low."

However, some economists do see signs of a job market slowdown. According to calculations by Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, unemployment rates in 20 states have risen significantly enough to trigger the so-called "Sam's Rule."

The Sahm Rule, proposed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, applies to the national economy, not individual states. Under this rule, when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage point or more relative to the previous 12-month low, it signals the onset of a recession.

But that has not happened yet, and the rule will only take effect when the U.S. unemployment rate rises above 4%. Pingle is one of the fewer analysts who still predict a U.S. recession this year. States with sharp increases in unemployment include New York, California and the political swing states of Arizona and Wisconsin.

Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, sees the Sam rule from another perspective, saying it has been triggered by certain categories of workers, including those with a high school degree or less. of workers, as well as those approaching retirement, "the unemployment rate is increasingly sending warning signs." He also predicted a recession in 2024.

Another potential sign of a softening labor market is that many Americans are working fewer hours. Data compiled by payroll management company ADP show that as a group, hourly workers are working fewer hours than before the pandemic.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said it's unclear whether workers are voluntarily reducing their hours or whether companies are cutting back on employees' hours. Whatever the reason, the reduction in weekly working hours meant that for many workers their weekly wages were not keeping pace with inflation, she said.

San Francisco Fed President Daly said in Washington last month that the danger of a damaging downturn in the job market seemed remote. But she also warned:

"Given the historically rapid pace of labor market shifts, this is a risk we must keep in mind."

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

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