【音频版】2024年3月26日（星期二）金十期货早餐会

期货早高峰-音频版

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宏观新闻

1、据《证券时报》报道，昨天上午，市场传言房地产相关文件即将出台，主要集中在两个方向：一是全面取消核心城市限购政策，二是推动房地产调控政策落地。落实融资协调机制。

业内人士了解，一线城市非核心区域的限购政策或将取消，但可能仍处于研究阶段。

融资协调机制正在落实。

2、上海航运交易所数据显示，截至2024年3月25日，上海出口集装箱结算运价指数（欧洲航线）报2153.34点，较上期下跌11.6%。

3、国家能源局数据显示，截至2月底，全国累计发电装机容量约29.7亿千瓦，同比增长14.7%。

其中，太阳能发电装机容量约6.5亿千瓦，同比增长56.9%；

风电装机容量约4.5亿千瓦，同比增长21.3%。

4、美联储博斯蒂克重申，预计今年只会降息一次，如果经济表现符合预期，美联储可以保持耐心。

5、中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，中国经济保持良好复苏势头，有能力实现全年5%左右的预期增长目标。

中国人民银行将根据监管形势需要，灵活适度、精准有效地实施稳健的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，把维护物价稳定、促进物价温和回升作为重要考虑调控货币政策，继续为经济复苏创造良好环境。

良好的货币金融环境。

全球期货市场变化

1、国内商品期货夜盘涨跌互现。

能源化工品多数上涨。

燃料油涨2.07%，苯乙烯涨1.41%，橡胶涨1.14%，20号橡胶涨近1%，原油涨0.86%，玻璃下跌。

纯碱下跌1.33%，纯碱下跌1.17%。

黑色系多数下跌，焦炭跌1.08%。

农产品普遍上涨，其中豆类上涨1.61%，棕榈油上涨1.23%，豆油上涨1.07%。

多数基本金属下跌，沪镍跌1.58%，沪锡跌1.22%，不锈钢跌0.74%，沪铜跌0.12%。

沪金上涨0.13%，沪银上涨0.19%。

2. International oil prices rose across the board, with the U.S. oil May contract rising 1.7% to US$82.00 per barrel. Brent oil June contract rose 1.41% to US$86.03 per barrel.

3. International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.6% at US$2,173/oz and COMEX silver futures down 0.03% at US$24.835/oz.

4. The main agricultural product futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed mixed, with soybean futures up 1.28% at 1,207.75 cents/bushel; corn futures down 0.46% at 437.25 cents/bushel, and wheat futures up 0.18% at 555.75 cents/bushel.

5. London basic metals closed mixed. LME copper futures fell 0.04% to US$8,863/ton, LME zinc futures rose 0.28% to US$2,491/ton, LME nickel futures fell 1.26% to US$17,025/ton, and LME aluminum futures rose. LME tin futures fell 0.55% to US$27,575/ton, and LME lead futures rose 0.25% to US$2,041.5/ton.

Black hot information

1. According to Mysteel, from March 18 to March 24, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 ports in China was 24.433 million tons, an increase of 741,000 tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at 45 ports in China was 23.497 million tons, an increase of 726,000 tons from the previous month. . The total arrival volume of the six northern ports was 12.635 million tons, an increase of 1.911 million tons from the previous month.

2. According to Mysteel, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil from March 18 to March 24 were 24.055 million tons, an increase of 1.975 million tons from the previous month. Australia shipped 19.129 million tons, an increase of 3.455 million tons from the previous month, of which Australia shipped 16.339 million tons to China, an increase of 2.353 million tons from the previous month. Brazil shipped 4.927 million tons, a decrease of 1.479 million tons from the previous month. The total global iron ore shipments in this period were 29.121 million tons, an increase of 775,000 tons from the previous month.

3. According to the announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, in accordance with the "Measures for the Management of Designated Delivery Warehouses of the Dalian Commodity Exchange", the "Qualification and Supervision and Management Regulations of the Designated Delivery Warehouses of the Dalian Commodity Exchange" and other relevant regulations, it was decided after research: to increase the sales of Sanjiao Rizhao Co., Ltd. , Shanxi Xin Xinneng Technology Co., Ltd. designated factory warehouse for coking coal.

4. According to Mysteel, Indian mining company Vedanta has recently resumed mining activities in Goa, India after six years. Vedanta has also become the first company to obtain consent from the Goa State Pollution Control Board to operate. It has now been approved to operate from its state every year. The Bicholim block mines 3 million tons of iron ore.

5. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, attended the China Development Forum. Pan Gongsheng pointed out that China's financial system is operating steadily, financial institutions are generally healthy, and risk resistance is strong. There have been some positive signals in the real estate market. There is a solid foundation for long-term healthy and stable development. Real estate market fluctuations have limited impact on the financial system.

6. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-March, key steel companies produced a total of 20.4758 million tons of crude steel, 18.3612 million tons of pig iron, and 19.6522 million tons of steel products. Among them, the daily output of crude steel was 2.0476 million tons, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous month, a decrease of 9.12% from the same period last year, and a decrease of 0.08% from the same period last year; the daily output of pig iron was 1.8361 million tons, a decrease of 0.41% from the previous month, and a decrease of 6.56% from the same period last year. %, the same caliber increased by 2.22% compared with the same period last year; the daily steel output was 1.9652 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.95%, the same caliber decreased by 8.05% compared with the same period last year, and the same caliber decreased by 2.35% compared with the same period last year.

7. Data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce and Trade show that in the fourth week of March 2024, for a total of 16 working days, Brazil installed a total of 19.8196 million tons of iron ore, compared with 27.1458 million tons in March last year. The average daily shipping volume was 1.2387 million tons per day, an increase of 4.95% from 1.1803 million tons per day in March last year.

Agricultural products hot information

1. According to data from shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia’s palm oil exports from March 1 to 25 were 1,082,405 tons, an increase of 13.77% from the 951,409 tons exported in the same period last month.

2. The National Grain Trading Center announced the bidding and sales transaction results of imported soybeans on March 25. The transaction volume was 213,086.458 tons, the transaction volume was 82,366.441 tons, the average price was 3,923.65 yuan/ton, and the transaction ratio was 38.65%.

3. According to AmSpec, an independent inspection agency in Malaysia, Malaysia’s palm oil exports from March 1 to 25 were 1,046,049 tons, an increase of 21.2% from the 863,108 tons exported in the same period last month.

4. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of March 20, the national pig export price was 14.93 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.50% from March 13; the price of corn in major wholesale markets was 2.46 yuan/kg, the same as March 13; The pig-grain price ratio was 6.07, an increase of 1.51% from March 13.

5. The Indonesian Ministry of Trade said that Indonesia’s palm oil product exports in January and February were 1.89 million tons and 1.01 million tons respectively, lower than the monthly average level over the past year.

6. The General Administration of Customs announced that from now on, the import of Austrian pork (including edible pig by-products) that meets relevant requirements will be allowed.

7. According to foreign media reports, Edy Priyono, deputy director of the Indonesian President's Office, said in Jakarta on Monday that the government is considering revising the domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for edible oil and linking it to production rather than exports.

8. Monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center shows that from March 1 to 22, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 5 million tons. It is expected that there will be insufficient power to rebound the operating rate of oil mills this week, with the crushing volume of about 1.6 million tons.

9. According to foreign media reports, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Commissioner in Brasilia stated in a report that the growth rate of Brazil’s soybean planting area will slow down to 45.6 million hectares in 2024/2025; soybean production is expected to be 157.5 million tons. This is 4.9 million tons higher than the revised forecast for 2023/2024. Due to bad weather at the end of 2023, Brazil's soybean yield in 2023/2024 is expected to be 7% lower than in 2022/23.

10. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia’s palm oil production is estimated to increase by 2.98% from March 1 to 20, with an increase of 9.94% in Peninsular Malaysia, a decrease of 6.96% in Eastern Malaysia, and a decrease of 5.16% in Sabah. Sarawak decreased by 10.34%.

11. According to data released by shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia’s palm oil exports are expected to be 997,825 tons from March 1 to 25, an increase of 15.85% from the 861,334 tons exported in the same period last month.

12. Agricultural consulting company AgRural said on Monday that as of last Thursday, Brazil's 2023/2024 soybean harvest rate reached 69%, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous week, but slightly lower than the 70% in the same period last year.

13. Oilseed crushing data released by the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association (COPA) shows that in February 2024, Canadian soybean crushing volume was 138,467.0 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.04%; soybean oil production was 25,728.0 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.49%; soybean meal production It was 107,974.0 tons, down 11.18% from the previous month. The Canadian oilseed crushing crop year is from August to July of the following year. In February 2024, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 897,790.0 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.14%.

14. The export inspection weekly report released by the United States Department of Agriculture shows that as of the week of March 21, 2024, the United States shipped 517,066 tons of soybeans to China (mainland region). The previous week, the United States shipped 551,371 tons of soybeans to mainland China. The amount of U.S. soybean export inspections to China that week accounted for 67.26% of the total export inspections that week, compared with 80.35% last week.

15. Data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce and Trade show that in the fourth week of March 2024, for a total of 16 working days, Brazil shipped a total of 9.9178 million tons of soybeans, compared with 13.2414 million tons in March last year. The average daily shipping volume was 619,900 tons/day, an increase of 7.67% from 575,700 tons/day in March last year.

16. According to CONAB, the national commodity supply company under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, as of March 24, Brazil’s soybean harvest rate was 66.3%, 61.9% last week, and 69.1% in the same period last year.

17. The March supply and demand report released by consulting firm Safras & Mercado shows that Brazil’s soybean production in 2023/24 is expected to be 148.601 million tons, 0.32% lower than the 149.076 million tons forecast on February 9, and lower than the record production last year. 157.83 million tons, a decrease of 9.23 million tons or 5.85%.

18. Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture stated that Argentina’s soybean crushing volume in February 2024 was 2.354 million tons, an increase of 10.5% from 2.13 million tons in January, the highest value since July last year, and a year-on-year increase of 51.5%.

Energy and chemical industry hot information

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of March 25, the total sample inventory of Jiangsu styrene port was 198,400 tons, a decrease of 22,100 tons from the previous cycle, a decrease of 10.02%. Commodity inventory is at 165,900 tons, a decrease of 19,600 tons from the previous cycle, a decrease of 10.57%.

2. According to analysis by Goldman Sachs, Brent crude oil prices have slightly exceeded fundamentals and may consolidate at the high range of US$70-90 per barrel.

3. According to sources, Russia’s Kuibyshev Refinery (Kuibyshev) has suspended the operation of the main unit CDU-5 after being attacked by a drone over the weekend.

4. OPEC+ representatives believe there is no need to recommend changes to oil supply policy at next week’s review meeting because the production quotas set in the first half of the year have proven to be effective. The Saudi-led coalition has agreed to maintain its latest production cuts of about 2 million barrels per day until the end of June.

Metal hot information

1. According to statistical analysis by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February 2024, Chinese brand passenger cars sold 791,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, and the market share was 59.4%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points. From January to February 2024, Chinese brand passenger cars sold 2.066 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, and the market share was 59.9%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points.

2. According to the latest terminal sales data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2024, domestic new energy heavy truck sales were 2,025 units, a 44% decrease from January this year, and a year-on-year growth of 70%, among which new energy tractor sales 1,212 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 45% and a year-on-year increase of 83%.

3. On March 25, Ganfeng Lithium and Australian lithium producer Pilbara Minerals issued a statement stating that the two parties were considering jointly developing a lithium refinery with an annual output of 32,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. According to the binding term sheet signed by both parties, the feasibility study is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2025.

4. Data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce and Trade show that in the fourth week of March 2024, for a total of 16 working days, Brazil installed a total of 92,000 tons of copper ore and copper concentrate, compared with 113,000 tons in March last year. The average daily shipping volume was 5,800 tons/day, an increase of 17.09% from 4,900 tons/day in March last year; the cumulative shipment of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate was 389,100 tons, compared with 669,700 tons in March last year. The average daily shipping volume was 24,300 tons/day, a decrease of 16.49% from 29,100 tons/day in March last year.

Talking about "period" - revealing the logic of variety trading!

1. The excess supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate has not changed. How will it be viewed in the future?

Xinhu Futures analysis pointed out that from a fundamental perspective, the overall supply of lithium salts is still in a loose situation. Some lithium salt plants in Jiangxi plan to resume production, and weekly output has increased month-on-month. The increase in imports has offset the early supply-side disturbances. As the window period for environmental protection inspections in Jiangxi approaches, it is expected that the unexpected impact will be limited, and we can continue to pay attention to it in the future. Overall, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still weak, the oversupply and demand pattern has not changed, and the upward space for prices is limited. However, considering the support of spot prices and the fact that there is still room for fermentation on both sides of supply and demand in April, the downward space for lithium prices also has certain limitations. . It is expected that short-term lithium price fluctuations will be weak.

2. With terminal demand recovering slowly, will the weak trend of glass continue?

Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that supply increased, demand improved slowly, the glass spot market was weak, and terminal real estate demand recovered slowly. On the supply side, glass supply increased, corporate inventories accumulated, production and sales ratios declined slightly, and sales prices fell. Judging from the data, the total inventory of float glass sample companies across the country increased by 1.32% month-on-month this week, and the supply side is still in surplus. On the demand side, some manufacturers in Shahe area have increased their production and sales after adopting price guarantee measures. However, this increase lasts for a short period and has no spillover effects. It is difficult to find effective support on the demand side. Taken together, supply is under pressure and demand is weak. The short-term weak situation of material glass is difficult to change. Pay attention to the changes in demand on the real estate side and policy support.

近期重要期货数据和事件一览

1. The Boao Forum for Asia 2024 Annual Conference will be held in Boao, Hainan from March 26 to 29. This year's annual conference will have four major sections: "World Economy", "Technological Innovation", "Social Development" and "International Cooperation", covering more than 40 sub-forum activities.

2. Due to the Holy Quran holiday on March 28, Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange BMD will be closed for one day. There will be no night trading on Wednesday, March 27. Normal trading will resume on Friday, March 29.

3. At 20:30 on March 28, the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States. Previous data showed that the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the fourth quarter was revised to 3.2%, which was expected to be 3.30% and the previous value was 3.30%. Pay attention to whether the data has been adjusted.

4. At 00:00 on March 29, USDA released the quarterly inventory report of soybeans, corn, and wheat, and the 2024 crop planting intention report. The planting intentions report is based on a survey filled out by U.S. farmers in early March and is the first official estimate of planting intentions for the coming year. At the Outlook Forum in February, U.S. soybean acreage was expected to be 87.5 million acres in 2024, and the final acreage in 2023 was 83.6 million acres. The 2023 Outlook Forum was 87.5 million acres.

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

热点：期货