时间：2024-04-26|浏览：320
“美国恐怖故事”正在上演，经济增长意外“急转直下”，而核心通胀却居高不下。美国“滞胀”风险似乎正在加大，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)表示担心美国经济可能重蹈20世纪70年代的覆辙。
对于美国经济来说，或许比通货膨胀更可怕的是重返滞胀时代的前景。
昨天，美国公布了两个重要经济数据：一季度GDP和同期核心物价指数。数据显示，美国一季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比仅增长1.6%，较去年四季度3.4%的增速下滑超50%，创2007年以来最低水平。 2022 年第二季度。
尽管一季度GDP增长“冷淡”，但核心通胀依然出人意料地顽固。美联储首选通胀指标核心PCE物价指数一季度意外增长3.7%，创2023年二季度以来新高，高于预期3.4%，较2%增速大幅反弹在第四季度。
一系列数据表明，在通胀居高不下的情况下，经济增长已开始放缓甚至停滞，暗示美国可能面临滞胀局面。滞胀被认为是美联储面临的最糟糕的噩梦，甚至比经济衰退更难应对。
本周早些时候，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙指出，尽管美国经济依然强劲，但可能会出现一段滞胀期。戴蒙担心美国经济可能会重蹈1970年代的覆辙，他表示，“是的，我相信这种情况（像1970年代的滞胀）可能会再次发生。现在看来，我们的情况更类似于1970年代。” 1972 年看起来相当乐观，但 1973 年却变得很糟糕。”
戴蒙近几个月频繁就美国经济弹性面临的风险发出警告。正如他在 4 月 8 日致股东的信中表示，这些风险可能导致“比市场预期更顽固的通胀和更高的利率”。
戴蒙警告市场，由于政府支出过多，美国通胀和利率可能仍高于市场预期，他已为美联储加息至最高8%做好准备。
However, some views suggest that the emergence of stagflation is still far away. Although inflation has not cooled down, the market still expects at least one interest rate cut this year, and domestic demand in the US remains strong. Pooja Sriram, an analyst at Barclays, pointed out after the GDP report was released that the growth in domestic sales indicates that "demand conditions are still strong," with consumer spending growing steadily by 2.5% and business investment growing faster than expected, mainly dragged down by imports and inventories.
尽管如此，越来越多的经济学家和策略师都认为对“金发姑娘”的信心正被数据逐步粉碎，Glenmed投资策略副总裁Mike Reynolds直言，尽管“金发姑娘”的说法今年以来一直占据市场经济叙事的主导地位，但从多方面来看，这个“姑娘”似乎被GDP报告绊了一跤，擦破了膝盖。
Nevertheless, an increasing number of economists and strategists believe that confidence in the "Goldilocks" scenario is gradually being eroded by data. Mike Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy at Glenmed, bluntly stated that despite the "Goldilocks" narrative dominating market narratives this year, it seems that this "girl" has stumbled over the GDP report and scraped her knee from various perspectives.
美国当前状况与70年代的惊人相似性
The Striking Similarities between the Current Situation in the US and the 1970s
上世纪70年代，美国曾一度陷入“大滞胀”的泥潭，越南和中东冲突导致美国面临能源危机、航运中断和赤字支出激增等问题，1973年和1979年两次石油危机导致能源价格飙升，高昂的能源价格引发美国通胀率飙升，1980年曾一度达到13.5%的高位水平，同时伴随着高失业率和经济增长乏力。
In the 1970s, the United States fell into the mire of "grand stagflation," facing issues such as energy crises, shipping disruptions, and surging deficit spending due to conflicts in Vietnam and the Middle East. The oil crises in 1973 and 1979 led
After the data was released, US Treasury yields and inflation-adjusted yields both rose to their highest levels since November last year. Markets now expect the probability of the Fed raising interest rates before December to rise from 17% a day ago to 21.4%.
Fitch Ratings economist Olu Sonola wrote that the focus of the current US economy is the soaring inflation. If economic growth continues to decline slowly, but inflation surges again in the wrong direction, expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in 2024 will further decline.
Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the "new Fed correspondent," wrote that the US economic activity report released on Thursday brought the latest bad news to investors and Fed policymakers. They had hoped that the slowdown in economic growth and cooling inflation would allow the Fed to start cutting interest rates this summer, but in fact, the opposite is true.
Timiraos指出，最新数据表明，经过去年下半年的完美降温后，美国通胀已被证明比预期更为顽固。数据显示，今日公布的3月核心PCE物价指数同比增速或将高于0.22%，接近0.3%（市场普遍预期的水平）。这意味着通胀压力可能比此前预期更大。 1 月和 2 月的核心 PCE 数据也可能向上修正。
应该指出的是，滞胀是每一位央行行长最可怕的噩梦。为了解决20世纪70年代的滞胀问题，美联储更换了两位美联储主席，但未能根治。 1979年，保罗·沃尔克大幅提高利率，联邦基金利率最高达到20%左右。尽管这一措施最终控制了通货膨胀，但也导致了1980年至1982年的经济衰退，失业率超过10%。
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