比特币减半即将到来，算力仍然很高

对于比特币矿工来说，没有什么特别好的消息：减半即将到来，但算力仍然很高。

挖矿是一种竞赛，算力越高的人赚取更多的BTC，但奖励是固定的，大约每4年就会随着减半而减半。

问题是，算力越高，消耗的电力就越多，成本就会增加：超过一定水平，就有亏损挖矿的风险。

比特币减半和当前的算力水平

比特币协议规定，成功验证区块的矿工将获得一些比特币奖励。

最初，这个奖励是 50 BTC，协议规定每 210,000 个区块奖励减半。

到目前为止已经发生了三次减半，下一次减半将在区块号 840,000 处将奖励减少至 3.125 BTC。

由于第 830,000 号区块是在周末开采的，现在距离下一次减半还剩不到 10,000 个区块。

刚刚：#Bitcoin 减半之前还剩 10,000 个区块。 pic.twitter.com/Y3W3iicz2N

—Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) 2024 年 2 月 11 日

平均开采一个区块的时间不到10分钟，而且一次只能开采一个区块，预计减半应该发生在4月中旬左右。

奖金减半

事实上，矿工通过挖掘比特币区块链的区块来赚取两种类型的收入。

第一个是奖励，从4月份开始，奖励将从目前的6.25 BTC每个区块减少到3.125 BTC。

第二个是费用，但费用会随着时间的推移而变化。然而，由于每个区块的字节大小是有限的，矿工可以包含在一个区块中的交易数量是有限的，这也限制了费用。

例如，今天开采的 830,101 号区块仅允许矿工总共赚取 0.145 BTC，而之前的区块为 0.235。

因此，一般来说，费用不仅比当前奖励低得多，而且与他们从下一个减半开始获得的 3.125 BTC 新奖励相比也会更低。

由于比特币矿工只赚取BTC，其市场价值也极大地影响了他们的经济表现。幸运的是，目前它很高，但如果它下降，矿工可能会遇到问题。

矿工的问题

矿工的真正问题是高电力消耗。

事实上，挖矿是一种竞争，对于每个区块来说，那些能够依靠很高算力的人会受到极大的青睐。一方面，这导致许多矿工通过矿池集中资源，另一方面，由于更多的算力也意味着更多的电力消耗，因此导致非常高的能源消耗。

At the moment the reward is halved, and in the absence of a significant increase in fees, all this could lead to major economic sustainability problems for many miners, especially if the price of BTC were to drop significantly.

In this case, the only solution would be to consume less, and the only way to do it would be to turn off less efficient machines, effectively reducing revenue opportunities as well.

It is not surprising, therefore, that recently the stock prices of Bitcoin mining companies have dropped in the stock market.

Taking as a reference the one with the highest market capitalization, namely MARA of Marathon Digital Holdings, after rising to $31 at the end of December, it then fell below $16 in January, when the price of BTC fell below $39,000. However, thanks to the rise in the price of BTC, it has risen to almost $24, but still remains well below the values at the end of 2023.

In other words, recently the stock performances of mining companies have been lower and more volatile than those of Bitcoin itself, to the point that MARA stock was even at $19 in July of last year, which is slightly below the current level and above the level of late January 2024.

Part of this problem could be contained by the fees generated by the Ordinals, which are a kind of NFT on the Bitcoin blockchain that have already significantly increased the fees paid by users to miners.

The relationship between hashrate and Bitcoin halving

All of this is exacerbated by a very high hashrate.

Just think that on February 3rd, which is just under ten days ago, the all-time daily record of almost 650 Eh/s was recorded.

Therefore, although in recent years increasingly efficient machines have been launched on the market, consumption is at its highest, excluding momentary consumption peaks during the 2021 bubble.

This will make it even more difficult for miners to bear the halving of the reward, to the point that those who do not have new super-efficient machines will probably have to stop mining, if they want to do it profitably, unless they have very low-cost electricity or the price of Bitcoin rises further.

To be honest, we can expect a reduction in hashrate after the halving, precisely because of the dynamics described above, but it may not necessarily be a collapse. In fact, nowadays the new super-efficient machines are very common, and this could mean a moderate reduction in hashrate due to the decommissioning of old and less powerful machines.

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