场外交易每周交易洞察 (02/21/2024)

时间：2024-02-21|浏览：217

场外交易每周交易洞察02212024

上周三突破 51,000 美元后，比特币在 53,000 美元处遭遇强劲阻力，目前在 51,000 美元至 53,000 美元区间横盘交易。
虽然比特币正在努力争取另一条腿，但山寨币领域却充满了表现强劲的货币。
OpenAI 最近发布的文本转视频模型 Sora 重新点燃了市场对人工智能 (AI) 的兴趣。 Worldcoin ($WLD) 由 Sam Altman、Max Novendstern 和 Alex Blania 于 2019 年创立，是该产品发布后的获奖者之一。 Sam Altman 也是 OpenAI 的首席执行官。 Sora 推出后仅四天内，WLD 价格就从 3.50 美元上涨至 7.80 美元。
Livepeer ($LPT) 也受益于 Sora 的介绍。 Livepeer 是一种去中心化的实时视频流网络协议，它利用去中心化技术为传统的集中式广播方法提供可行的替代方案。消息传出后的两天内，LPT 的市值几乎增加了两倍，目前交易价格为 15 美元。
Prom ($PROM) 也经历了动荡的一周，在 DWF Labs 首席执行官 Andrei Grachev 公开证实他对该项目的个人投资后几个小时内涨幅超过 90%。 Prom 是一个游戏非同质代币 (NFT) 市场和租赁平台，允许 NFT 的无抵押租赁和抵押服务。

整体市场

场外交易每周交易洞察02212024

上图显示了自 2021 年 12 月以来 BTC 价格走势。
正如我们上周讨论的那样，BTC 在 53,000 美元上方面临重大阻力，如红色区域所示。如果BTC克服这一阻力位，则在达到59,000美元之前不会有重大阻力。因此，空头将尽力捍卫这一阻力位。
尽管比特币在过去几天一直横盘整理，但来自比特币现货 ETF 的资金流入仍然强劲。比特币 ETF 每天持续 300 至 5 亿美元的净流入表明投资者对比特币风险敞口的高需求。
然而，比特币价格上个月上涨了 35%，从 FTX 破产财产清算 10 亿美元 GBTC 以来的最低水平 38,500 美元上涨至 52,000 美元。投资者和交易员将资金从比特币转向其他山寨币并不奇怪。考虑到比特币价格的大幅波动，这种资本轮换是完全正常的。

场外交易每周交易洞察02212024

上图显示了过去两周 ETH/BTC 的价格走势。

上周三，比特币飙升并突破 51,000 美元后，我们的团队注意到对以太坊的强劲需求。在过去的7天内，ETH/BTC价格从0.0531上涨至0.0572，ETH表现优于BTC。
我们的团队预计 ETH/BTC 的这种上涨趋势将在未来几周内持续，因为 ETH 网络将在 3 月份进行期待已久的 Dencun 升级。
Another factor contributing to the ETH price's outperformance is the potential approval of an Ethereum spot ETF. Currently, the market expects the SEC approval in May.

Options Market

场外交易每周交易洞察02212024

The above table shows the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC and ETH options with different expiries.
While the implied volatilities for BTC options are all above 50%, they stay at the same level as last week. On the other hand, the implied volatilities for ETH options are around 60%, except for the 30-day expiry one.
With a large difference in IVs between ETH options and BTC options in the front end, it seems options traders are buying ETH options and pushing the options in the front-end tenor to be higher. It signals that a potential large movement in ETH price in the next few days is priced in the options market.
It will be interesting to monitor the IV on ETH near-term options and see if it retraces to the normal range soon. As the bulls failed to hold their ground and keep the ETH price above the $3,000 critical level, our desk expects to see both bulls and bears push forward and crash on the other side.
Given the high IVs on ETH front-end options, selling covered calls and covered puts can yield nice returns. For example, selling an ETH-3000 call expiring March 1 will collect an 86.4 USDT premium, a 119% annualized yield, with a spot reference of 2940 USDT.

Macro at a glance

Last Thursday (2024-02-15)
- In January, US retail sales fell 0.8% month on month, more than the expected 0.2% drop. The retail sales growth rate in December was revised to 0.4% from 0.6%. Core retail sales fell 0.6% on a monthly basis in January, compared to the expected 0.2% increase.
- US initial jobless claims remained in the low range, with 212k new claims reported last week, slightly exceeding the expected 219k.
- British retail sales increased by the most in nearly three years in January as consumers regained their appetite for spending, implying that the economy could recover more quickly than expected from its recession in the second half of last year. Retail sales increased by 3.4% in January, far exceeding the estimated 1.5% increase and December's 3.3% decrease.
Last Friday (2024-02-16)
- The US PPI increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis in January, surpassing both the previous month's -0.1% and the estimated 0.1% increase. The rising PPI will put upward pressure on inflation and could lead to a later rate cut by the Fed.
- According to Statistics Canada, Canada's CPI fell to 2.9% year on year in January, down from 3.4% the previous month. This reading came in lower than the market's expectation of 3.3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI remained unchanged, despite the expected 0.4% increase. The annual Core CPI increased by 2.4% during the same period, down from 2.6% in December. The disinflationary numbers in Canada raise the possibility of an early rate cut by the Bank of Canada.
On Tuesday (2024-02-20)
- China's central bank cut the 5-year loan prime rate by 0.25 basis points to 3.95%, while leaving the 1-year rate unchanged at 3.45%. This rate cut is regarded as the latest effort to relieve pressure on the country's struggling real estate market.

Convert Portal Volume Change

The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.
This week our desk observed massive trading demand on AI and Fan Token zones.
The impressive 374.5% volume increase in the AI zone is mainly due to the strong demand for Worldcoin ($WLD). The newly released OpenAI product Sora renewed the market's enthusiasm for Worldcoin, an iris biometric cryptocurrency project founded by Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO.
The trading volume in the Storage zone also doubled. The main drivers of increased demand are Arweave ($AR) and Filecoin ($FIL). Filecoin ($FIL), a peer-to-peer file storage network, announced on Sunday that it will collaborate with smart contract platform Solana (SOL) to develop decentralized blockchain storage solutions. The announcement caused Filecoin to rise from $5.8 to $7.4 in three days.

Why trade OTC?

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API.

To access manual price quotations, you may visit our Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/spot), where you can RFQ (request-for-quote) and trade directly with our OTC trading team via a live chat.

To utilise our Algo orders features, you may visit our BinanceAlgo Orders platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/AlgoTrading).

For any other inquiries on OTC trading, please reach out to us via our email at trading@binance.com for our trading desk to get in touch with you and get started.

OTC trades may also be automatically quoted on Binance Convert and via API, offering users a quick and simple way to execute trades across 60,000+ pairs with one simple click. Binance Convert supports over 350 tokens listed on the exchange including fiat pairs. Begin trading from as little as 1 USD. To start, simply navigate to the Binance Convert & Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert), select the coins you wish to trade, preview and confirm the quote with settlement reflecting almost instantly in your wallet balance. For details and access to Binance Convert OTC API, please refer to our Convert Endpoints (https://binance-docs.github.io/apidocs/spot/en/#convert-endpoints) and reach out to us at trading@binance.com if you have any questions or require assistance.

Visit Binance OTC (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for more information on our OTC products and solutions.

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