场外交易每周交易洞察 (05/02/2024)

• Wormhole ($W) 是 Wormhole 平台的原生代币，Wormhole 平台是一种多链协议，可以在区块链之间传输资产和数据。由于跨链资产需求旺盛，Wormhole ($W) 上周价格上涨 19.9%。

• Ether.fi ($ETHFI) 周六需求强劲，与 ETH 强劲反弹同时发生。周末 36 小时内 ETHFI 价格上涨超过 45%。然而，周一亚洲市场开盘后，大部分涨幅被逆转。

• Arweave（$AR）是一个去中心化存储网络，专注于无限期地存储数据。它作为一个集体拥有的硬盘驱动器，托管“permaweb”——一个永久的、去中心化的网络。它还确保子孙后代的数据完整性和可访问性，引领数字保存的范式转变。当 BTC 周三跌破 6 万美元时，AR 价格下跌了 18% 以上，在过去 7 天内回报了 -16.7%。

• Optimism ($OP) 是以太坊第 2 层扩容解决方案，最近需求强劲，在过去 24 小时内增长了 9% 以上。根据 Unchained crypto 周二发布的一份报告，最大的加密货币风险投资基金之一 A16z 购买了 9000 万美元的 OP 代币。据消息人士透露，这家风险投资公司的投资有两年的归属期。

整体市场

• 上图显示了过去两个月BTC的价格走势。

• 正如我们在之前的文章中讨论的那样，60,000 美元 - 61,000 美元范围是一个强劲的需求区域，在 BTC 价格高于该区域后，该区域经过了多次测试。然而，近期由于地缘政治冲突导致抛售，该区间的购买力下降，比特币跌破该水平。

• 正如我们 4 月 17 日的报告所述，如果 BTC 跌破 60k/61k 支撑区间，下一个强支撑区间将是 56k/57k 美元。它也是 350 日移动平均线。在硅谷银行倒闭期间，该移动平均线充当了坚实的支撑位。

• BTC价格自4月份以来就形成了熊旗，上方多次试探均被拒绝。 56,000 美元/57,000 美元的支撑位也在较低趋势线附近。如果比特币从此处恢复，这并不意味着价格将逆转并回到历史高位。除非 BTC 价格突破下行通道，否则我们认为 BTC 势头将继续在下行通道内交易。

• 如果 BTC 价格跌破下行通道，下一个强支撑位将是 51,000/52,000 美元区间，如图所示。

期权市场

• 上表显示了 BTC 和 ETH 期权的 25-delta 偏度。

• 如上表所示，BTC 和 ETH 期权对于短期和中期期限都具有极大的负偏差。负偏度表明期权交易者更有可能购买看跌期权而不是看涨期权。

• The most recent one with such negative skews occurred on April 16, when the Middle East's geopolitical conflicts escalated. BTC recovered the majority of its losses over the next few days, but then continued to decline.

• This time, our desk noticed a more significant skew shift to the negative side than on April 16. One of the reasons could be the FOMC meeting held this Wednesday. Although the market expected the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, it is more important to know whether the Fed will raise interest rates again given the sticky inflation backdrop.

• Following the FOMC meeting today, Fed Chairman Powell indicated that no interest rate hike is being considered, but he did not provide any indication of when the interest rate cut will occur. The slowdown in the pace of balance-sheet reduction benefited the market, but the postponed rate-cut action cast a cloud over investors' heads.

• Our desk believes that the negatively skewed BTC and ETH options will move back towards the zero line in the next few days, but they may remain negative for an extended period if the downward momentum on the BTC price continues.

Macro at a glance

• Last Thursday (24-04-25)

  • The US GDP growth rate was 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, lower than the expected 2.5%. The lower-than-expected GDP growth rate raised market concerns about the potential failure of the Federal Reserve's proposed soft landing.

  • US initial jobless claims fell further last week, from 212k to 207k, indicating that the US labour market remains tight.

  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that US economic growth was likely stronger than the weaker-than-expected market data, and inflation continued to rise despite the Q1 flare-up.

  • The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.1%, unchanged, and continued its bond purchase. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if data confirms the BOJ's price view, it will raise interest rates, but he did not give clues on when the rate hike will start.

• Last Friday (24-04-26)

  • The US PCE price index rose 2.7% year on year in March, exceeding the estimated 2.6% and February's 2.5%. The core PCE price index rose 2.8% on an annual basis in March, exceeding the expected 2.6% and remaining consistent with February's 2.8%. The higher-than-expected PCE price index demonstrated that inflation is stickier than the market expected, potentially postponing the Federal Reserve's rate-cut decision timeline.

• On Tuesday (24-04-30)

  • In April, the Eurozone's CPI growth rate was 2.4% year on year, which was consistent with economist forecasts. The core CPI growth rate was 2.7%, slightly higher than the expected 2.6% but lower than March's 2.9%. Unlike the data in the United States, the Eurozone's CPI continued to fall, drawing closer to the ECB's 2% inflation target. According to the data, the ECB is more likely to cut interest rates for the first time this cycle at its June meeting.

  • 4月份美国CB消费者信心为97.0，显着低于预期的104.0和3月份的103.1。消费者信心差于预期表明4月份消费者支出可能放缓，从而缓解通胀上行压力。

• 星期三 (24-05-01)

  • 美联储维持利率在5.50%不变。 FOMC 声明指出，委员会 2% 的通胀目标缺乏进展。与此同时，美联储将从 6 月份开始将资产负债表削减额从 650 亿美元减少到 250 亿美元。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，加息不太可能是央行的下一步举措。这一鸽派评论使所有三个指数上涨超过 1%，比特币从 5.74 万美元上涨至 5.93 万美元。然而，所有涨幅在美国交易时段结束前全部逆转。美国市场收盘时，比特币交易价格为 57,000 美元。

转换门户体积变化

• 上表按区域显示了我们的 Convert Portal 上的交易量变化。

• 本周，Monitoring 区域的交易量增长了 3.4%，而 Fan 代币区域的 Convert 交易量下降了 8.2%。

• 在过去 7 天里，Loom Network ($LOOM) 和 aelf ($ELF) 对监控区域的交易量增长贡献最大。

• BNB Chain 区域的 Convert 交易量下降了 5.8%。尽管如此，该区域对几种代币的需求量很大。 BNB Chain 区域的代币中，Polkastarter ($POLS) 和 COMBO ($COMBO) 的交易需求增幅最高。

• 同期，粉丝令牌区域的交易量下降了 8.2%。巴塞罗那足球俱乐部球迷代币 ($BAR) 和波尔图足球俱乐部 ($PORTO) 是该区域最受欢迎的两种代币。对曼城球迷代币（$CITY）的需求下降幅度最大。

为什么进行场外交易？

币安为客户提供多种方式进行场外交易，包括聊天沟通渠道和币安场外交易平台 (https://www.binance.com/en/otc)，用于手动报价、算法订单或通过 Binance Convert 自动报价大宗交易平台 (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) 和 Binance Convert OTC API。

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