NFT 价值的崩盘以及 SuperRare 首席执行官的评论

许多 NFT 的市场价值已从 2021/2022 年的峰值暴跌，但 SuperRare 的首席执行官并不这么认为。

最近，约翰·克雷恩 (John Crain) 猛烈批评了一篇宣称 NFT 已死的文章，尽管该文章称 NFT 正在彻底改变。

NFT 价值的崩盘：SuperRare 首席执行官的评论

NFT 市场在 2021 年上半年爆发式增长，恰逢最新一轮大牛市的第一阶段，并且在至少一年的时间里几乎处于持续增长状态。

但那是一个投机泡沫，即使在当时也不难理解。

随着 2022 年加密货币的熊市，这样的泡沫破裂，NFT 市场实际上崩溃了。

在 2021 年末/2022 年初的高峰期，已经出现了第一次下降，但真正的崩溃是在两年前 5 月 Terra/Luna 生态系统崩溃之后开始的。

事实上，如果链上 NFT 交易量的周峰值出现在 2021 年 8 月，平均每天 4.5 亿美元，那么到 2022 年 5 月初，这一日均交易量已降至 2.65 亿美元。

然而，去年10月，这一平均值甚至跌破1000万美元，与2021年的峰值相比暴跌了98%。

然而，随着 2023 年 10 月至 11 月开始的加密货币牛市，出现了峰值反弹。

想想看，去年 12 月，它曾一度回升至近 7500 万美元。然而，即使是这种反弹也先是放缓，然后经历了一次调整，以至于现在链上 NFT 的日均交易额已降至 3200 万美元左右。

NFT 死了吗？

遭遇主要崩盘的是与艺术品市场相关的 NFT，尤其是图像文件。

在高峰期，NFT 市场每天的交易量达到近 20 万个代币，日总价值超过 1.91 亿美元。

从那时起，艺术 NFT 市场就开始缓慢下滑，跌幅超过 90%，几乎导致市场崩溃。

对于这种类型的数字内容，市场尚未出现复苏，因此很难想象与艺术相关的 NFT 在短期内会出现显着的复苏。

SuperRare 首席执行官对 NFT 市场价值崩盘的评论

然而，SuperRare 首席执行官约翰·克雷恩 (John Crain) 并不同意。

SuperRare 主要是一个艺术 NFT 的市场，Crain 在他的官方 X 简介中写道，应该在更普遍的框架中审查针对 NFT 的大量负面评价。

现在看到 CT 上的情绪非常有趣。NFT 周围充斥着负面情绪。人们忘记了我们六年前实际上是从 0 开始的，而两周前 @base 拥有超过 4400 万美元的 NFT 铸币。NFT 显然已经死了

— SuperRare John

写道：

“People forget that we literally started from scratch six years ago, and two weeks ago on Base there were over 44 million dollars in NFT. NFTs are clearly dead.”

However, he also adds that he believes we will continue to see a change in this business model.

On the other hand, even the incriminated article suggested a change in the business model.

The change

The problem is that it is difficult to imagine that the current bull market of artistic NFTs can really recover.

It is instead easier to imagine that the same NFT market could change, addressing new sectors.

The article rightly pointed out that they are not an asset in themselves, but only a way to record on the blockchain who holds the rights to an asset.

Their main use should be to certify ownership and authenticity, and their main characteristics should be those related to the functionalities of the blockchains, such as interoperability, secure transfer, and verification.

In short, the real asset is the underlying, that is, what the non-fungible token represents, not the NFT itself.

The idea that by purchasing an NFT one was acquiring an asset that would appreciate over time really has foundations that are too weak to support a market like that of 2021.

The Real World Asset (RWA)

The next step, however, should be to use NFTs to tokenize real-world assets, with the so-called RWA.

The key point is precisely the fact that an NFT actually represents a sort of certificate of ownership, verifiable and non-falsifiable.

The difficulty lies in creating a certain and unambiguous connection between a real asset and a token, and for this it will probably be necessary to refer to some certifying body, which very unlikely can be decentralized.

In this form, NFTs can also be linked to the world of art, because in theory they could allow the tokenization of real works of art.

If the RWA token market has not yet taken off, it is probably because sufficient guarantees have not yet been provided to ensure that a certain token is actually associated with a property right.

When this problem is effectively resolved, then the RWA market will truly be ready to take off.

Speculation

Instead, what happened in 2021 is just pure speculation.

A classic speculative bubble simply inflated, in which those who bought an NFT did so only because they hoped to resell it at a higher price.

This kind of bubbles is always destined to burst sooner or later, even if not always once they burst, they completely wipe out a market.

For example, in the early 2000s, the speculative bubble of the so-called dot-coms, the technology companies listed on the stock exchange that claimed to do business online, burst. With the burst of that bubble, many dot-com stocks disappeared from the stock exchanges, but some remained, and a decade later they returned not only to the levels reached during the bubble but also well beyond.

比如亚马逊的股票，就经历过投机泡沫，几年之内，它的价格从0.1美元涨到了5美元多，泡沫破灭之后又回落到了0.3美元，但是不到十年的时间，它又回到了5美元，二十多年之后，它的价格达到了近200美元。

目前尚不清楚 NFT 市场最终会如何发展，但如果它能够根据投资者的需求和愿望发展，尽管许多 NFT 已经消失，但它可能会比以前更加强劲地回归。

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