时间：2024-01-16|浏览：315
经过多年的拒绝，比特币（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）终于在上周开始交易。 投机者预计这一事件将推高比特币的价格，但这并没有发生。 CryptoSlate 研究和数据分析师 James Van Straten 表示，这导致总销售额约为 47 亿美元
一直处于“极度贪婪”状态的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数最近为 76 分，现已跌至中性 52 分。这是一个积极的信号，因为它表明大部分泡沫可能已脱离系统。
随着“抛售消息”事件的结束，交易者可能会关注宏观经济数据。 所有人的目光都集中在美国联邦储备委员会上，根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的 FedWatch 工具数据，预计美联储最早将于 3 月份开始降息。 如果发生这种情况，风险资产可能会表现良好。
比特币和山寨币的调整结束了吗？ 主要加密货币能否在短期内恢复上涨趋势？ 让我们分析一下图表来找出答案。
标准普尔 500 指数价格分析
1 月 8 日，标准普尔 500 指数 (SPX) 从 20 日指数移动平均线 (4,727) 回升，表明上升趋势依然完好，交易员将逢低视为买入机会。
SPX 日线图。 来源： TradingView
向上倾斜的移动平均线表明买家占据上风，但相对强弱指数（RSI）的负背离值得谨慎对待。 如果该值维持在4,800点之上，该指数可能会升至5,000点的重要心理水平。
下行方面，20 日均线是值得关注的第一个支撑位。 如果该水平回落，则表明购买压力正在减轻。 随后该指数可能会跌至50日简单移动平均线（4,601）。
美元指数价格分析
过去几天，美元指数 (DXY) 一直在 20 日均线 (102) 附近的下跌趋势中盘整。
DXY 日线图。 来源： TradingView
持平的 20 日均线和 RSI 接近中点，无论多头还是空头都没有明显的优势。 如果价格维持在 20 日均线下方，空头将试图将指数拉至 101 的关键支撑位。
从好的方面来看，多头可能会面临 50 日移动平均线 (103) 的抛售。 突破并收盘于 50 日移动平均线之上将表明将开始更强劲的复苏至 104.50。 该水平可能会再次见证空头的强劲抛售。
比特币价格分析
1 月 14 日，比特币突破并收于支撑线下方，表明空头正试图卷土重来。
BTC/USDT 日线图。 来源： TradingView
20 日均线（43,693 美元）已开始下跌，RSI 接近 46，表明空头略有优势。
Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, it will signal a shift in the sentiment from buying on dips to selling on rallies. The BTC/USDT pair may fall to $40,000 and later to $37,980.
Contrary to this assumption, if buyers overcome the barrier at $44,700, it will suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The pair will then try to reach the psychologically important level of $50,000.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) is correcting in an uptrend with the bulls trying to keep the price above the immediate support at $2,458.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($2,398) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the bulls are in command. If the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off $2,400, it will signal strong buying on dips. The ETH/USDT pair may then rally to $2,717. If this level is scaled, the next stop could be $3,000.
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the price continues lower and plunges below $2,400. That could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($2,282) and eventually to $2,100.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) dipped below the 20-day EMA ($301) on Jan. 12, but the bears could not sustain the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $291.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
That started a relief rally, which picked up momentum on Jan. 15. If buyers hold the price above $317, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to $338 and thereafter dash to $350. The $350 level is likely to attract strong selling by the bears, but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair may soar to $400.
The important level to watch on the downside is $291 because a slump below it could tug the price to the neckline.
XRP price analysis
Attempts by the bulls to start a recovery in XRP (XRP) stalled near the downtrend line on Jan. 11, suggesting that the bears remain in control.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.59) and the RSI below 43 suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. The selling could accelerate if the price plummets below the $0.56 support. That will clear the path for a drop to $0.50 and then to $0.46.
If buyers want to prevent the decline, they will have to shove the XRP/USDT pair above the downtrend line. That will invalidate the bearish pattern and start a relief rally to $0.67 and eventually to $0.74.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) returned from the downtrend line on Jan. 14, indicating that the bears are vigorously protecting the level.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($96) has flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. If the price skids below the uptrend line, the SOL/USDT pair may tumble to $67.
Alternatively, if the price rises above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The pair could then travel to $117 and later to $126. Buyers will have to clear this hurdle to signal the resumption of the uptrend.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been falling inside a descending channel pattern for several days, but a minor positive is that the bulls have maintained the price above the breakout level of $0.46.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.55), the ADA/USDT pair could climb to the downtrend line of the channel. A break and close above the channel will indicate that the downtrend could be over. The pair may then surge to the overhead resistance at $0.68.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears continue to sell on rallies. That will increase the likelihood of the pair dropping to the support line of the channel, where the buyers are likely to step in.
Avalanche price analysis
Avalanche (AVAX) has been trading below the breakdown level of $38 since Jan. 12, but the bears have failed to sink the price to the strong support at $31.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($37.32) is gradually sloping down, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a slight advantage to the sellers. If the 50-day SMA ($35.68) support gives way, the AVAX/USDT pair may retest the $31 support. A strong bounce off this level may keep the pair rangebound between $31 and $43.50 for some time.
The next trending move is likely to begin after buyers drive the price above $43.50 or bears pull the pair below the crucial support at $31.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been sustaining below the 20-day EMA ($0.08) for the past few days, but the bears have failed to sink the price to $0.07.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate an advantage to sellers. If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to sink the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.07.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are losing their grip. Buyers will then try to propel the pair to the stiff overhead resistance zone between $0.10 and $0.11.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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